Dems hail Pa. vote as anti-Trump ‘Blue Wave’
Republicans say they’ll keep control in midterms
WASHINGTON – As President Trump returned to the White House from California on Wednesday, he flew above a political landscape that looked less secure for Republicans.
Despite the president’s support of the GOP candidate, Democrats made a strong showing in a Republicanfriendly House district in Pennsylvania and saw the vote as a sign that an anti-Trump backlash could carry them to a congressional majority in the elections in November.
“Let it be known that the Blue Wave of 2018 began in Pennsylvania,” said Jack Hanna, that state’s Democratic chairman. “And this is only the beginning of the wave.”
Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory in the close Pennsylvania race, and political analysts said things look good for the party as it tries to wrest House and Senate majorities from the Republicans and Trump.
“The president is the lens through which people evaluate how things are going in the country,” said Stuart Rothenberg of Inside Elections.
Trump backers said the Pennsylvania race won’t be replicated nationwide in November. Republicans said the voter turnout strategies they used to help elect Trump in 2016 will enable them to keep control of the House and the Senate in 2018.
“I look at the big picture, not a oneoff special election,” Republican National Committee spokesman Rick Gorka said. “We’re looking at protecting and expanding our majorities.”
Democrats said Trump’s unpopularity — his approval rating hovers around 40% — will drag down many a Republican this fall.
The Pennsylvania results suggest that one in five people who voted for Trump in 2016 are prepared to desert the Republicans, Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson said. The GOP, he said, “just did a dress rehearsal of selling their agenda to an audience of their own family but still got bad reviews from them the next morning.”
During his morning tweets Wednesday, Trump didn’t mention the election. Instead, he focused on proposed changes in U.S. trade policy, promoting an infrastructure program, praising the economy and denouncing senators who opposed some of his Cabinet nominees.
A day after inspecting border wall prototypes and campaign fundraising in Southern California, Trump flew to Missouri on a policy trip that included promotion of his tax cut plan and more fundraising.
Republicans cited what they called unique factors in Pennsylvania. They criticized the Republican candidate, state legislator Rick Saccone, for being uninspiring.
They noted that Lamb took conservative positions, including support of gun rights and criticism of House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. They said most Democrats won’t be able to take that approach in the fall and keep their bases happy. They also noted that the district will soon go away when Pennsylvania changes its political map.
Republicans spent about $12 million to help Saccone, which dwarfed Lamb’s spending.
White House aides said they always saw Saccone as an underdog and credited Trump with making the contest close.
“The president’s engagement in the race turned what was a deficit for the Republican candidate to what is essentially a tie,” spokesman Raj Shah said.
Scott Jennings, a political affairs adviser to President George W. Bush, said it’s a bad environment for Trump and the Republicans.
Previous presidents have faced the
“The president is the lens through which people evaluate how things are going in the country.”
same situation: Bush in 2006 and Democrat Barack Obama in 2010. Both parties lost control of Congress in those election years.
Jennings estimated that “there’s a 60% chance the Democrats will take back the House,” but Republicans have a good chance to keep the Senate because the Democrats have to defend so many Trump-friendly states.
Trump will be a “huge factor,” Jennings said, but he will be a “good factor” for Republicans in some races. This is particularly true in Senate races where Democratic incumbents seek re-election in states that Trump won handily.
Republicans said Pennsylvania serves as a warning to the party: Stick to local issues. The GOP has good candidates for November, consultant Bruce Haynes said, but “Republicans have to do a better job rallying the donor base to support them, and those candidates have to run on the issues the district cares about and not get drawn off course by the winds of Washington’s whims.”
Stuart Rothenberg Inside Elections