IDLED TRUCKERS?
Prospect of self-driving rigs carries load of questions
“If you don’t take the driver out of the truck, you’re not changing anything.” Stefan Seltz-Axmacher Starsky Robotics
SAN FRANCISCO – The trucks rumble out of California ports laden with freight destined for all points east, an incessant ballet of goods, gear and labor long synonymous with commerce, independence and the open road.
A key player in this quintessentially American dance could soon disappear: the trucker.
A technological dawn is breaking over an industry that moves 70% of the nation’s wares, one that promises to change the lives of 3.5 million truck drivers similar to the way tractors revolutionized farming a century ago.
Technologists promise that self-driving trucks are coming, a disruptive shift targeting a slice of trucking’s $700 billion annual freight revenue by removing the human behind the wheel — which, as in ridehailing, remains the most costly part of the business.
Job security aside, the thought of automated road behemoths with no one at the wheel immediately raises concerns among truckers about reliability, capability and, most of all, safety.
“I’ve driven 4 million miles, and yet every day I head out, there’s always some new situation I have to deal with,” says Dick Pingel, 64, of Plover, Wis., who has amassed nearly a half-century of truck driving experience.
He welcomes tech innovations that make his job easier but remains unconvinced that a computer can be ready for anything.
“Can it really distinguish between a deer and a child and always make the right call?” he asks.
In a deadly incident Sunday in Tempe, Ariz., an Uber self-driving car killed a pedestrian who stepped in front of the vehicle outside a crosswalk.
Uber paused its self-driving operations as authorities investigate the crash. Toyota also halted its tests.
Police described the accident as “unavoidable” but released a video showing the safety operator behind the wheel — who was supposed to provide human backup to the car — looking down at something just before the crash.
Fears about the pitfalls of ceding control of large, dangerous vehicles to software have been a constant companion in the drive toward autonomy. The financial incentives — and a belief that computers will ultimately trump humans in safety — have kept the technology rumbling along.
From deep-pocketed Google-owned Waymo to upstart Starsky Robotics, companies are at work reinventing trucking as artificial intelligence and big data similarly transform manufacturing, farming and health care.
Trucking 2.0
What does the future look like for truckers?
❚ They may ditch cross-country hauls and stay local as they leave interstate highway runs to self-driving rigs. That could provide more time with loved ones but probably would cut into earning potential, as well as the appeal of hitting the road.
❚ They could sleep in the back of their self-driving big rigs during long stretches, banking valuable driving hours while still being on the road and earning a living. Veteran drivers suggest sleeping would be impossible for fear of crashes.
❚ They might drive trucks remotely like drone pilots, using their skill at maneuvering massive vehicles while never leaving their hometowns. This seems appealing but may be a recipe for accidents and insurance headaches.
Waymo, Google’s self-driving car business, tests its trucks on Atlanta highways and streets, bringing goods to its data centers. Uber started to deliver freight for companies in its Volvo selfdriving trucks in Arizona, sticking mainly to highways. Both companies use safety drivers at the wheel to monitor progress.
Other players stepped up their game in response. A start-up called Embark completed a five-day, coast-to-coast run last month in a self-driving truck.
“By taking on the long-haul portion of driving, we create an opportunity for drivers to shift into local driving jobs, which tend to be more desirable as they increase their time at home,” Embark COO Mike Reid says.
Tesla unveiled its Tesla Semi, an electric truck packed with self-driving Autopilot aids, including emergency braking, lane keeping and lane departure warnings. It can use sensors to drive in a convoy with other Tesla Semis.
Creating fuel savings based on tech and aerodynamics is the focus of Silicon Valley-based Peloton Technology. Using sensors to keep two trucks within 50 feet of each other, thereby cheating the wind, could be an attractive solution because it doesn’t involve fully automating the truck.
“We’re taking a pragmatic approach by offering truckers fuel savings ranging from 4.5% for the lead truck to 10% to the second truck, which is significant when fuel is 35% of a company’s permile operating expense,” Peloton Tech- nology CEO Josh Switkes says.
Last month, a team of 21 engineers at San Francisco-based Starsky Robotics remotely steered a sensor-packed truck for 7 miles along a rural Florida highway.
“If you don’t take the driver out of the truck, you’re not changing anything,” Starsky’s Stefan Seltz-Axmacher says. “Here’s an opportunity for you to (virtually) drive a truck, but then you leave work and just go home to your family.”
View from the driver’s seat
Truckers aren’t so sure they are down with the self-driving revolution — and it doesn’t help that Goldman Sachs predicted automation could kill 300,000 trucking jobs a year, starting around 2045.
Even if the autonomous technology works, a number of concerns loom.
“Who’s going to insure these trucks if there’s no one driving them or if someone is just passed out in the cab sleeping?” says Norita Taylor of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents people who own their six-figure rigs and pay for them by contracting out their time.
“I’m not sure these entrepreneurs have thought about what happens when there’s a crash and the trial lawyers get involved,” she says.
V. Paul Herbert, a veteran truck driver turned truck safety expert with the Western Motor Carrier Safety Institute, says, “An autonomous big rig will never be able to possess the insight or reasoning capability of a well-trained professional truck driver.”
Herbert says that even though companies focus on highway driving, autonomous trucks won’t have a human driver’s trained habit of looking 12 to 15 seconds down the road for oncoming hazards — crucial when piloting a 70-foot-long, 13-foot-high, 80,000pound truck that takes twice the distance to stop of a car.
“I have very significant reservations about autonomous big rigs sharing the roadways with my family members,” Herbert says.
So does the powerful Teamsters Union, which after the Arizona Uber crash released a statement expressing extreme reservations about self-driving trucks being tested on public highways, noting that its 600,000 members “are among the safest (drivers) on the road.”
Road ahead is foggy
Unless you live in states such as Arizona, California, Nevada, Michigan and Florida, you’re unlikely to come across a truck that isn’t helmed by a trucker.
The reality is that there is a lot of work to be done before your Amazon order or groceries shuttle along highways by themselves.
Large insurance companies say they are looking into the implications of selfdriving vehicles of all kinds. Federal regulators monitor companies working on such tech, hoping to stem the growing tide of traffic fatalities — about 40,000 last year — while encouraging technological progress.
Given that many self-driving-tech experts say humans may always be needed for big rigs to navigate city streets, it would seem that many veterans of this vital transportation solution might see retirement before radical change.
“Everyone is very aware of this coming trend, but it’s not around the corner,” says Jordan Nelson, trucking industry analyst with Oklahoma City-based KSM Transport Advisors.
“Regulators aren’t clear how they’ll handle this, the public likely wants to see a driver for the scare-factor alone, and you have lots of companies all trying different approaches to the same problem,” he says. “This tech is exciting, but no one thinks it’ll solve everything.”