Women’s Final Four

Mississippi State vs. Louisville 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2 Why Mississippi State will win: Bulldogs coach Vic Schaefer insists him team has had a “bull’s-eye” on its back since ending Connecticut’s 111-game winning streak in the 2017 Final Four, but they dropped only one game in what has been Schaefer’s best season. Each starter shoots over 40% from the field, with Teaira McCowan hitting 61%. They held opponents to 56.1 points per game, winning by an average of 25.9 points.

Why Louisville will win: Two words: Asia Durr. The Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year averages 18.7 points on 46% shooting, including 41.8% from beyond the arc. She has scored 47 points (against Ohio State), 38 (Georgia Tech) and 36 (Notre Dame). The Cardinals, who beat Notre Dame for the ACC tournament championship, outscored opponents by 20.5 points. Connecticut vs. Notre Dame 9 ET, ESPN2

Why UConn will win: Coach Geno Auriemma thinks this is the toughest Final Four he’s seen in recent years and notes that maintaining his level of success gets harder every year, but they remain the favorite. UConn outscores opponents by an average of 37.1 points. In their only meeting this year, the Huskies overcame an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Fighting Irish 80-71. The Huskies are on a mission to avenge last season’s semifinal exit.

Why Notre Dame will win: Muffet McGraw did a masterful job in coaching this season, weaving together a Final Four squad out of a shortened rotation after having four players sidelined with torn ACLs. The Fighting Irish also shoot over 50% from the floor. But this game will likely come down to defense, and Notre Dame’s has looked strong.