U.S. strike might not halt Assad advance
Stronger action could sink U.S. into Syria mire
A limited U.S. airstrike against Syria — similar to a year ago — is unlikely to hurt President Bashar Assad’s growing strength in his country or change the course of the civil war, analysts said Monday.
President Trump, who weighed his options after reports of a horrific chemical weapons attack in Syria over the weekend, vowed to decide on a course of action soon.
Trump faces the choice of a limited strike that might not deter Assad from chemical attacks or a wider response that risks drawing the United States deeper into a global conflict.
“The likeliest option is exactly what we saw before: an airstrike that the president puts forward as a so-called tough response but doesn’t do very much to degrade Assad’s forces or to punish him for his ongoing use of chemical weapons,” said Jonah Blank, an analyst at RAND Corp.
“This is more about his use of chemical weapons than it is the outcome of the war,” said Andrew Tabler, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
A year ago, Trump ordered a strike on the regime’s military forces after a similar chemical attack. That didn’t stop Assad from expanding control over the country — largely because most of the regime’s military might comes from Russia and Iran. Russia has provided air power and other support; Iran supplies the ground forces.
The strike was carefully limited —
59 U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles that damaged about 20 Syrian aircraft, or
20% of its operational warplanes. The United States warned Russia of the attack before it launched the missiles.
Assad’s military is suspected of using chemical weapons this weekend to
clear a rebel-held territory in Douma just outside Damascus, the capital. Chilling videos and photos of bodies of children killed or injured by the attack spread over the Internet this weekend. At least 40 people may have died. Syria denied involvement.
Assad is trying to clear pockets of resistance around Damascus in the war, which is in its eighth year. Regime forces and their Iranian and Russian allies have made steady progress over the past couple of years in recapturing territory from opposition groups.
Islamist militants holed up in Douma agreed to a deal to leave the area. “The evacuations are still ongoing,” said Jennifer Cafarella, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.
Cafarella said the regime was negotiating with the militants in the hopes of avoiding a bloody, urban fight. The chemical attack was intended to force the militants to concede after the talks broke down, she said.
Monday, Russia blamed Israel for a missile attack on an air base in central Syria. The Pentagon denied Syrian media reports that the United States conducted the airstrikes in Syria.
Trump could order a sustained air campaign.
“Nothing is off the table,” he said at a Cabinet meeting Monday. “We’ll be making some major decisions over the next 24 to 48 hours.” Sunday, he said there would be “a big price to pay” by Syria and Assad. “This is about humanity ... and it can’t be allowed to happen.”
The United States has asked the U.N. Security Council to authorize an independent investigation into the attack. Almost two weeks ago, Trump said he wanted to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria. The White House later qualified his remarks to say there was no timetable for withdrawal.