Allen might go No. 1 but he’s not Top 40 now

No, I didn’t forget about Josh Allen. Just two days from the NFL draft, it’s impossible to overlook the Wyoming quarterback. Prospects are too often depicted as “polarizing,” yet that label seems apt for Allen given the gulf between his backers and skeptics.

Seen as a likely top-five pick and maybe the leading candidate for the Browns with the No. 1 selection, Allen has a wealth of readily evident physical tools. At 6-5 and 237 pounds, he can uncork deep throws with ease and looks comfortable doing so on the run.

Yet his production was more than lacking and left many wondering why he regularly struggled to handle Mountain West Conference competition.

Omitting Allen from my list of top 40 prospects (Page 5C) in this draft was neither an intended slight nor oversight. Rather, it seemed the best way to establish how he truly stands as a player at this time: a project who, while offering considerable upside, presents serious questions about whether he will be able to fully capitalize on his physical gifts.

Part of the case for Allen is that the right staff can unlock his ability and help make those highlight-reel throws his baseline. This is the kind of “why don’t they make the whole plane out of the black box” kind of thinking; however, that often leads to regime changes. Allen infamously completed just 56% of his passes at Wyoming, a mark falling well short of expectations given the talent level he routinely faced.

Of the 27 quarterbacks drafted in the first round the last 10 years, only former Titans pick Jake Locker had a lower completion rate in college (55.4%). Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan were the only others worse than 60%, but Ryan’s stats belied his clear proficiency as a passer in the short to intermediate area.

That one mark alone, of course, can’t tell the full story about any prospect’s overall accuracy. But the track record of comparable quarterbacks has shown these issues aren’t easily cleaned up.

“Bottom line is the accuracy usually just doesn’t jump five points,” NFL Network analyst Charles Davis said. “You get to the NFL, and the windows are tighter and the guys are quicker. You don’t become a more accurate thrower, as a general rule.”

Allen told Pro Football Talk Live recently that he believes criticism about his accuracy is overblown and working with private coach Jordan Palmer has helped him with footwork he described as “jacked.” Improving the mechanics of his delivery will help, but his ball placement issues are one symptom of a larger problem. According to Sports Illustrated and Pro Football Focus, Allen had a passer rating of 73.4 when under pressure, well below other top quarterbacks in the class and the NCAA-wide average of 90. As he repeatedly struggled to identify blitzes and go through his progression in a speedy manner, he too of- ten settled for dangerous throws and ended up with an interception rate of one per 30.9 passes in his career.

To be fair, Allen has faced a level of scrutiny heavy even for a top quarterback in the draft; his high school completion rate was used by some to highlight concerns. He has also faced comparisons to the likes of Kyle Boller, the former Ravens first-rounder who completed 47.8% of his passes. Others have wondered if he is at risk of becoming the next Christian Hackenberg, who has yet to play for the Jets two years after being selected in the second round.

“Josh is a much better player — I don’t think it’s close with him and Hackenberg,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “But some of the rawness, there’s a similarity there.”

A coaching staff might mold Allen into the player he needs to become. With time to develop, he might translate his impressive pure throwing ability into a long career as a high-level starter.

Or maybe it’s best to keep expectations tempered, at least for now.