Our last-minute NFL draft predictions
Several teams could trade up to grab one of the quality QBs available
The NFL draft begins Thursday night. But before the Browns kick things off, here are 18 questions that will be answered over the seven-round “annual player selection meeting”.
1. How many quarterbacks will go in the first round?
Wyoming’s Josh Allen, Southern California’s Sam Darnold, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and UCLA’s Josh Rosen are virtual Round 1 shoo-ins. It’s possible some combination will be the first trio picked first, second and third since Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith in 1999. If Louisville’s Lamar Jackson also hears his name called Thursday, this draft would be the first since 1999 with five first-round passers (Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown were the other two taken 19 years ago).
2. What other QBs bear watching?
Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph likely will get picked early Friday. He has the size (6-5, 235 pounds), production — albeit in a spread offense — ac-
curacy and demeanor teams look for. Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, Western Kentucky’s Mike White and Washington State’s Luke Falk are among other compelling developmental prospects.
3. What will the Browns do?
After picking thrice in 2017’s first round, including No. 1 overall selection Myles Garrett, Cleveland owns the first and fourth overall picks this year and has three more in Round 2. Smart money suggests new general manager John Dorsey will take Allen or Darnold at the top and, barring a trade, will add either Penn State running back Saquon Barkley or North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb at No. 4. This roster already feels far superior to the one that went 0-16 last year, but Dorsey also has to replace retired left tackle Joe Thomas and will likely monitor cornerback and defensive tackle.
4. Why is the Giants’ pick so important?
Whatever GM Dave Gettleman does will have a cascading effect on the rest of the first round. This will be the first time the franchise has selected No. 2 since getting Lawrence Taylor in 1981. No pressure. New York clearly has holes, and Gettleman has to be thinking about the future beyond quarterback Eli Manning, who’s now 37. Still, a year removed from a playoff berth, it would seem Barkley or Chubb would best check the boxes that allow Manning and Co. the opportunity to be competitive while also adding a future cornerstone.
5. Which teams are most likely to trade?
Bills GM Brandon Beane seemed to be running a script out of the Eagles’
2016 Carson Wentz playbook when he swapped tackle Cordy Glenn and the
21st pick for Cincinnati’s slot (No. 12). But if Beane has one more move up the ladder remaining to potentially get a quarterback, he has yet to make it. The Cardinals, who pick 15th, are the other team in obvious need of a young passer but not in a good spot to get one. The Giants, Browns (No. 4), Broncos (No. 5) and Colts (No. 6) might all be tempted to move down with the right offer.
6. What kind of statement will Saquon Barkley make?
Ki-Jana Carter, a Nittany Lion like Barkley, was the last running back picked first overall — in 1995 (and Carter’s injury-curtailed career served as a warning). No back has gone as high as No. 2 since Reggie Bush in 2006. But given the splashes top-10 picks such as Todd Gurley (2015), Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Leonard Fournette (2017) have made, an every-down talent like Barkley seems virtually guaranteed of being no worse than top five.
7. Which RB will be taken after Barkley?
LSU’s Derrius Guice will likely find himself in contention with Georgia’s Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. All seem to be hovering around the late-first/earlysecond round area.
8. Will teams invest heavily in receivers?
Don’t be surprised to see wideouts struggling to command draft respect. Route running is becoming a lost art at the college level. In the last three years, first-rounders Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett have been non-factors. This year’s crop doesn’t appear especially promising, with none projected to go in the top 10.
9. What’s a guard worth?
In the last two decades — with the exception of Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack in 2013 — no guards have gone in the top 10. (Leonard Davis, picked second in 2001, and Brandon Scherff, who went fifth in 2015, were college tackles who transitioned to NFL guards.) Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson is widely viewed as one of this draft’s three best players.
10. Are interior offensive linemen overtaking tackles?
Unlike guards, tackles have historically been coveted with premium picks. Not this year. Nelson will almost certainly be the first blocker taken and could be followed by Iowa center James Daniels and/or Texas-El Paso guard Will Hernandez.
11. Is there a new-age defensive position emerging?
Recent first-round picks including Mark Barron (2012) and Deone Bucannon (2014) entered the NFL as safeties before making their marks as athletic, if undersized, linebackers. Tyrann Mathieu doesn’t really have a pure position but displays defensive MVP-caliber impact when healthy. The 2018 draft includes Florida State’s Derwin James and Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick, who could be top-10 selections due to hybrid abilities. James classifies more easily as a safety, Fitzpatrick more like a corner.
12. Which linebacker goes first? Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith and Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds could be top-10 picks. The first one to go likely will boil down to preference. Smith skews smaller (6-1, 236) but can cover a lot of ground, blitz and should quickly assume a leadership role. Teams that run 4-3 schemes (49ers, Bills and, now, the Colts leap to mind) will likely assign more value to him. Edmunds, 19, is 6-5, 253 with great range and will likely develop into a bigger factor as a pass rusher. He should provide more scheme versatility than Smith but might struggle to excel quickly.
13. What will the Patriots do? After exporting Brandin Cooks, New England will pick 23rd, 31st, 43rd, 63rd and 95th in the first two days. History suggests Bill Belichick will package at least one of those selections, very likely to secure a high pick in 2019. And though Belichick doesn’t want to talk about filling needs, logic would dictate strong consideration for a left tackle, pass rusher, cornerback and, yes, a potential replacement for Tom Brady.
14. What other QBs could meet their replacements?
Brady turns 41 in August but is not the only franchise passer facing his NFL mortality. Drew Brees is 39, Manning is
37 and Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers are both 36. Even Joe Flacco is 33 and coming off an injury-marred season.
15. What about special teams? Central Florida corner Mike Hughes and Texas A&M receiver Christian Kirk might be first-rounders based on résumés at their natural positions. Both could see their value get a bump because they’re excellent in the return game. Washington’s Dante Pettis (6-1,
186) is a capable receiver and established an NCAA record with nine career punt returns for TDs.
16. Will there be another run on tight ends?
Last year, three tight ends were picked in the first round for the first time since 2002. But prior to 2017, only two were taken on Day 1 in the previous six drafts combined. South Carolina’s Hayden Hurst, who will be 25 when the season starts, and Dallas Goedert, who has something to prove coming out of South Dakota State, have the skills to instantly upgrade an offense. But both project as borderline first-rounders.
17. Which defensive line flavor will prevail?
A lot of quality defensive linemen — not necessarily edge rushers — are available. Washington’s 6-4, 347-pound Vita Vea could be a dominant nose tackle ... but he must improve as a pass rusher. Alabama’s Da’Ron Payne and Stanford’s Harrison Phillips appear best suited to shutting down run lanes and collapsing pockets on four-man fronts. Florida’s Taven Bryan has been compared with J.J. Watt (yes, that’s a bit much) and offers versatility and relentless effort. And, leveraging a low center of gravity, Michigan’s Maurice Hurst
(6-2, 292) could be a gap-shooting interior disruptor.
18. What does Bradley Chubb bring to the table?
This draft appears light on top-notch pass rushers, but Chubb’s about as good as they come. Denver’s Von Miller even said the Wolfpack star is “Khalil Mack and Von Miller put together.” Quite a bar for the 6-4, 269-pounder.