It’s hard to get a handle on Kim Jong Un
North Korean dictator is secretive and secluded
When Kim Jong Un prepares for his summit with President Trump, it will be relatively easy for the North Korean leader to do homework on his rival.
He can start by reading The Art of the Deal, in which Trump describes his negotiating strategy. Then Kim can review hundreds of tweets that reveal the president’s personality — and sometimes his vulnerabilities.
Trump’s advisers have a harder time getting a read on the secretive Kim. Since assuming office, Kim has rarely left the country or met with foreign heads of state, except when he took a train to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“We have no data to evaluate him as a negotiator,” said Robert Einhorn, a former State Department official who met with Kim’s father as part of the Clinton administration’s negotiations with North Korea.
U.S. officials will get their first close look at Kim’s motives and negotiating positions during a meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday.
“It’s nice to have that kind of warmup,” said Gregory Treverton, chair of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration.
Analysts concluded Kim is an adept negotiator. “He likes to take the initiative,” Einhorn said. “He likes to control the agenda, and he likes to keep his adversaries off balance. Looked at from a professional point of view, what he has been doing has been quite impressive.”
There is little in his background that would predict his success. Kim, who is in his early 30s, was relatively unknown when he assumed power in 2011 after the death of his father.
He has little exposure to life outside his isolated country, except for several years he spent at a school in Switzerland. That makes it hard to predict how he will act when he sits down with Trump.
“He likes to control the agenda, and he likes to keep his adversaries off balance. ... What he has been doing has been quite impressive.” Robert Einhorn Former State Department official
Still, there are ways intelligence officials and diplomats can get a glimpse of Kim’s strategic goals and tactics.
Kim’s pronouncements through the media are a form of negotiation, Einhorn said. Last year, Kim and his administration traded insults with Trump, calling him a “dotard” and launching a record number of ballistic missile tests.
His bellicose statements were designed to get the world to see North Korea as a world power. The missile testing allowed North Korea to expand its nuclear capabilities.
“Now he is prepared to pivot,” Einhorn said.
Last week, he promised to suspend missile and weapons tests. The initiatives to meet with Trump and Moon have been mostly Kim’s, though Moon’s invitation to attend the Winter Olympics in South Korea may have set the stage for some of the pronouncements from North Korea.
Trump agreed to meet with Kim without extracting any major concessions.
“He’s played Trump very well,” Treverton said.
Trump pushed back on that characterization at a news conference Tuesday, pointing out that economic sanctions against North Korea remain in place.
“A lot of concessions have already been made,” Trump said. “We have made no concessions, despite some of the media saying that I’ve made concessions.”
Trump has frequently boasted of his own negotiating skills. Some analysts worry that Trump might underestimate Kim’s abilities.
Analysts said Kim’s reputation as a buffoonish leader with an odd haircut and mannerisms is misleading. Kim is a cruel leader who rules with an iron fist, but he is not irrational.
Kim ordered his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, executed about a year after coming into power, according to the South Korean intelligence service. He is suspected by South Korea’s government of ordering the killing of his exiled half brother, Kim Jong Nam, a potential rival who was poisoned with a toxic nerve agent in Malaysia in February. Kim executed five senior government officials with anti-aircraft guns, according to the South Korean government.
“He is ruthless, but he’s also been relatively strategic,” Treverton said.