Springing ahead with FBS conference outlooks
Taking stock of favorites, dark horses, also-rans
With spring practices in the rearview mirror, here’s how conference races are shaking out across the Football Bowl Subdivision with four months until kickoff.
American Athletic
Favorite: Central Florida. With an offense loaded with talent, the Knights remain the class of the AAC under new head coach Josh Heupel.
Dark horse: Temple. A strong close to last season paints the Owls as UCF’s biggest threat in the East Division, though South Florida will also be in the mix.
Bringing up the rear: East Carolina. A difficult schedule that comes on the heels of back-to-back three-win seasons doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the Pirates.
Atlantic Coast
Favorite: Clemson. The Tigers might need to settle a quarterback competition, but every other position is loaded in advance of a potential championship run.
Dark horse: Florida State. It seems strange to call FSU an underdog, but the Seminoles might fly under the radar in Willie Taggart’s debut season.
Bringing up the rear: North Carolina. UNC is the pick from among a few options after bottoming out in last year’s 3-9 finish.
Big 12
Favorite: Oklahoma. It’s still the Sooners, even if there’s no way to predict just how severe the drop-off will be from Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to his replacement, likely Kyler Murray.
Dark horse: Kansas State. You won’t find Bill Snyder’s team on many preseason Top 25 lists, but that’s pretty much the way the Wildcats like it.
Bringing up the rear: Kansas. An annual tradition.
Big Ten
Favorite: Wisconsin and Ohio State. It’s only fair to share the honors between the Badgers and Buckeyes, who seem destined for another collision in December’s conference title game.
Dark horse: Michigan. The Wolverines’ chances improved dramatically when Mississippi quarterback transfer Shea Patterson was named eligible for 2018.
Bringing up the rear: Illinois. Even if head coach Lovie Smith knows what he’s doing — and no one is quite sure of the answer to that — the Illini look at least a year away from being a factor in the West Division.
Conference USA
Favorite: Florida Atlantic. Lane Kiffin’s second team will enter the season with the highest expectations in program history.
Dark horse: Marshall. The defense has the chance to be terrific, and quarterback transfer Alex Thomson has the ability to excel in his final season should he get up to speed before September.
Bringing up the rear: Texas-El Paso. The Miners and new coach Dana Dimel can only improve after last year’s winless finish.
Mid-American
Favorite: Toledo. Another option is rival Northern Illinois, but the Rockets continue to look the part of the MAC’s best even as they search for a new starting quarterback.
Dark horse: Akron. One year after reaching the conference championship game, the Zips again look like an underrated threat coming out of the East Division.
Bringing up the rear: Kent State. The Golden Flashes have some hope for the future as first-year head coach Sean Lewis installs his fast-paced offense, though it’s going to take time for this program to reverse its losing ways.
Mountain West
Favorite: Boise State. Not to overlook San Diego State, but the Broncos’ blend of talent, experience and depth make them the team to beat in the MWC and perhaps the best team from the Group of Five.
Dark horse: Wyoming. The Cowboys will be overlooked after losing quarterback Josh Allen to the NFL, but Craig Bohl has built this program to the point where it can contend for a conference title despite breaking in a new starter.
Bringing up the rear: New Mexico. The arrow is pointing down for Bob Davie and the Lobos after a dreadful 2017 season.
Pac-12
Favorite: Washington. The Huskies are poised to take home the Pac-12 title behind quarterback Jake Browning, running back Myles Gaskin and a defense that will again rank among the best in college football.
Dark horse: Arizona. There might be a learning curve as Kevin Sumlin takes over for Rich Rodriguez, but the Wildcats have the personnel to fit the new offensive scheme and sneak to the top of the South Division.
Bringing up the rear: Oregon State. A long and painful building project begins under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith.
Southeastern
Favorite: Alabama. The Crimson Tide will rebuild and reload behind a new cast of characters, with the only question plaguing head coach Nick Saban and his staff members the potential quarterback quandary between sophomore Tua Tagovailoa and junior Jalen Hurts.
Dark horse: South Carolina. An outright conference title seems a bit out of the Gamecocks’ reach, but getting back to nine wins and finding a home in the Top 25 seems possible, if not probable.
Bringing up the rear: Vanderbilt. The Commodores definitely have the ability and coaching to get to six wins and a bowl game, but the projected upswings from Tennessee and Florida will make things even more difficult in an improved East Division.
Sun Belt
Favorite: Arkansas State. In a topheavy league — Appalachian State and Troy could easily fit in this spot — the Red Wolves get the edge thanks to senior quarterback Justice Hansen, a deep receiver corps and an experienced offensive line.
Dark horse: Coastal Carolina. The program’s first year in the Sun Belt might have been a three-win disappointment, but look for the Chanticleers to rise up the conference standings in 2018.
Bringing up the rear: Texas State. Back-to-back finishes in the Sun Belt cellar means the Bobcats do not get the benefit of the doubt.