No easy feat in North Korea
Dismantling nuclear program could be expensive and take years to complete
If President Trump persuades Kim Jong Un to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, the effort would be unprecedented in its size and complexity, analysts say.
“This would be the biggest undertaking by the international community when it comes to denuclearization or disarmament,” said Olli Heinonen, an arms control expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a national security think tank.
If Trump and Kim reach an agreement, denuclearization could take years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, Heinonen said.
North Korean officials had announced Saturday that in less than two weeks they would take the first steps to dismantle the country’s nuclear test site. But on Tuesday, North Korea threatened to cancel Trump’s summit with Kim because of joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, though the United States downplayed the sudden uncertainty.
North Korea’s Central News Agency also announced it had canceled high-level talks with South Korean counterparts because of the drills it considers rehearsals for an invasion of the North.
U.S. officials said they had received no formal notification from the North or South Korean governments and no formal protest of the military exercises from Kim’s government.
Trump is scheduled to meet June 12 with Kim in Singapore to discuss denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Both sides have said they hope for a breakthrough.
The United States has said its objective is the complete dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear program and the elimination of its weapons stockpile. It is not clear what, if anything, North Korea would agree to at the summit or what Kim means by denuclearization.
In developing a plan to denuclearize North Korea, disarmament experts would look to several successful precedents. But none of them have involved a country with a program as advanced and as large as North Korea’s.
John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, said the dismantling of Libya’s nuclear program in 2003 might serve as a model.
“One thing Libya did that led us to overcome our skepticism was that they allowed American and British observers into all their nuclear-related sites,” Bolton said on CBS News recently. “It wasn’t a question of relying on international mechanisms. We saw them in ways we had never seen before.”
But Libya’s program was not nearly as advanced as North Korea’s, and the country had not stockpiled weapons. “It would have taken them about five years to produce enough material for one weapon,” Heinonen said.
In the 1990s, South Africa, which was further along in its program, volunteered to dismantle its nuclear program. The country had developed a small number of weapons but had stopped weapons production by the time it agreed to dismantle the program.
Analysts have concluded that North Korea has about a dozen weapons and has ballistic missiles capable of reaching cities in the United States. Its nuclear facilities are scattered around the country, and many of them are well-protected.
North Korea would have to provide details about its nuclear facilities before the international community could even develop a plan to dismantle the program. It has yet to do so.
In the past, North Korea has refused to allow international weapons inspectors access to nuclear sites. The United States and its allies would insist on a means of verification as part of any agreement.
“This would be the biggest undertaking by the international community when it comes to denuclearization or disarmament.”
Olli Heinonen Foundation for Defense of Democracies