Promise, peril for Dems in Calif.
Candidates could cancel each other, clearing GOP’s way
WASHINGTON – Andy Thorburn may seem like a dream candidate for Democrats in liberal California.
The former insurance executive campaigns on a promise to impeach President Trump and promote universal health care — a message he says is revving up voters across the 39th Congressional District before Tuesday’s highstakes primary in that state.
But Thorburn’s bid is a bit of a nightmare for Democrats, who see California as the linchpin in their push to win control of the House of Representatives this fall.
The problem: Under California’s toptwo open primary system, only the firstplace and second-place finishers — no matter their party affiliation — can advance to the general election.
In the 39th district, Thorburn is one of a cornucopia of Democratic candidates — sparking fears that Democratic voters may spread their support so thin that the top two slots on the general election ballot will go to Republican candidates. Democrats have a similar glut of candidates in at least two other California districts.
“Getting shut out of the general election is a problem that isn’t fixable,” says Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, a non-partisan publication that tracks House and Senate races.
Democrats need to pick up at least 23 seats to win the House gavel, and they count on California to provide a significant slice of that total. The reason California is so important: There are eight Republicans retiring from House seats that Hillary Clinton carried in her 2016 presidential campaign — making them ripe takeover targets if Democrats can make it to November’s balloting.
While eight states hold primary elections Tuesday — including critical contests from Iowa to New Jersey — most eyes will be on the Golden State’s pecu- liar system and its results. “California’s June 5 is the single highest-stakes primary of the year,” David Wasserman, who tracks congressional races for The Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis of the battle for control of the House.
If Democrats get “locked out” of the general election in California, Wasserman says, their path to a House majority will narrow significantly.
Thorburn agrees the risks are nerveracking. “There’s definitely a possibility of two Republicans” winning Tuesday’s primary, he says. “We have a very weird system here in California. It makes no sense at all.”
In the coastal 49th district anchored by San Diego, Rep. Darrell Issa is retiring after narrowly winning re-election in 2016 and seeing Clinton carry the district by 7 percentage points in her presidential bid. There are about a dozen candidates, Republicans and Democrats combined, battling it out for the top two slots in Tuesday’s primary.
In the beach-lined 48th district just to the north, the GOP incumbent, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, is not retiring, but Democrats and Republicans alike see him as vulnerable, in part because of his affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin. On a ballot that has six Republicans and eight Democrats, a splintered vote is nearly assured.
Democrats note that many of these districts were once GOP strongholds, but demographic and political shifts — plus Trump — have made them highly competitive. The slate of strong Democratic candidates lining up to run across California, party strategists say, is evidence of the enthusiasm among party activists for winning control of the House.
“It’s our intention to have a Democrat in the general election in all of these races in California,” New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Luján, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in April. “We owe that to these grass-roots organizations that have been putting in the work.”
Luján and other party leaders have had to tread carefully for fear of sparking a backlash if the Washington establishment is seen as supporting one candidate over others.
In the 39th district, the DCCC touted the candidacy of one of Thorburn’s Democratic foes — Gil Cisneros, a lottery-winner-turned-philanthropist.