Justify faces 9 in Belmont Stakes
Triple Crown hopeful draws rail post
If undefeated Justify is going to become horse racing’s 13th Triple Crown winner, he’ll have to do it from trainer Bob Baffert’s least favorite post position.
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner drew the No. 1 gate for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, a spot Baffert typically enjoys as much as rancid milk. Though Justify has plenty of natural speed, drawing inside means jockey Mike Smith is pretty much locked in to putting his horse on the lead to avoid getting pinned in down on the rail heading into the first turn.
That possibility is why Baffert typically prefers a post position further outside, especially with a smart jockey such as Smith who can use the first 200 yards of the race to find a comfortable spot in the clear, allowing his horse to run free. And with Justify now likely committed to the early lead, you can bet the other jockeys will attempt to gang up on Smith, trying to press him into a fast pace.
“I never do like the rail,” Baffert told reporters at the Belmont draw Tuesday. “We have it. We can’t change it. We’ll just deal with it.”
Justify, who won the Preakness by a diminishing half-length over Bravazo, will have nine challengers in the Belmont, signifying that rival trainers believe he can be beaten at 11⁄ miles follow
2 ing a grueling schedule this spring to get him ready to the Triple Crown.
The Belmont will be Justify’s sixth race since his debut Feb. 18, which would make him the first horse to win the Triple Crown without a race as a 2year-old.
And while Justify has purportedly showed positive physical signs during his training at Churchill Downs — he’ll ship into New York on Wednesday — there’s plenty of reason to believe the Belmont will be his biggest challenge yet.
Some of that is the field. Bravazo, who closed fast and just missed in the Preakness, is back for another try under the tutelage of legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Tenfold, a lightly raced colt who was third in the Preakness, is fresh and improving. Hofburg finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby after a rough trip but is a son of Tapit, who sired three of the last four Belmont winners. Wood Memorial Stakes winner Vino Rosso, who finished ninth in the Derby, stands to put in an improved performance after a five-week rest. And Blended Citizen, a newcomer to the Tri- ple Crown races, won the Peter Pan Stakes over the Belmont track recently.
But many of the questions around Justify come down to whether he’s really as good as American Pharoah, who roared out of his Preakness win and dominated the Belmont in 2015. Baffert hasn’t been shy about comparing the two horses, but he also knows how hard it is to win the Triple Crown, having fallen short with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2001) after winning the first two legs.
“You have to prepare yourself for disappointment,” Baffert said last week. “We were quietly confident (with American Pharoah), but you still have to do it. You don’t know how the race is going to play out, but I just think he still looks like he’s strong and he came out of the work really well. A mile-and-a-half is going to be tough, but he’s doing really well.”
Having the rail is likely only going to increase Baffert’s anxiety. On one hand, it makes the game plan pretty straightforward. On the other, having the lead will put a lot of pressure on Smith to judge how fast his horse is going early.
In 2015, American Pharoah was able to settle in on a relaxed lead, running moderate fractions for the first half-mile (48.83 seconds) and 6 furlongs (1:13.41) that left him plenty in reserve for Belmont’s long stretch run. But if Smith senses the pace is too fast, he’ll have to make a choice: Let Justify run or try to restrain him, which horses with natural speed typically don’t like.
We won’t know the answer until they’re halfway down the backstretch Saturday afternoon. But if nothing else, drawing the No. 1 post adds to the drama as Justify tries to make history.