Trump has the big picture right on trade

The verdict is already in from President Donald Trump’s critics: His tariff-heavy trade policies are already losers and could prove disastrous.

Actually, the evidence supports presidential confidence that American leverage can secure better terms from trade partners and strengthen the U.S. economic recovery.

Not that some collateral damage hasn’t resulted from U.S. metals tariffs, threatened levies on Chinese imports and autos from Europe — and even the chance that America will exit the North American Free Trade Agreement. Especially damning already, insist the critics: Harley-Davidson plans to offshore some U.S. production to evade European retaliatory tariffs.

But consistent with a belief in America’s clout, veritable trade-related alarm bells are sounding in many economies targeted by the Trump moves. Canadian manufacturers, for example, have declared that they depend so heavily on exporting to the United States that a revamped NAFTA would be better than no deal at all.

Top EU officials have vowed to reject further trade talks until the steel tariffs are lifted. But Germany’s huge — and export-reliant — auto sector wants talks restarted ASAP.

Even China, supposedly rich and disciplined enough to outlast America in a trade showdown, suddenly wants state-run media to slight the importance of its Made in China 2025 program, the blueprint for siezing global technology supremacy.

Indeed, the greatest obstacles Mr. Trump faces are domestic — and selfmade. Because he hasn’t prepared the public for inevitable near-term costs or described the long-term stakes, his trade overhaul campaign could be sandbagged by special interests. And the president’s frequent short-term zigs and zags have understandably raised questions about his bottom line.

But Trump has the big picture right. The U.S. has long had the wallet to turn trade into an engine of domestic growth. Now it’s displaying the will.