This year’s hurricane season may not be so busy after all

Some good news from top hurricane forecasters: The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season should be quieter than normal, according to a new prediction this week.

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University – regarded as the nation’s top seasonal hurricane forecasters – predict

10 named tropical storms will form, of which four will become hurricanes.

That is a sharp decrease from their forecast in April, when they said seven hurricanes would form. One system, Subtropical Storm Alberto, already formed in May.

If the forecast comes to fruition,

2018 will be a welcome relief after the

2017 season, which saw monsters like Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria tear paths of death and destruction across the Caribbean and the U.S.

Hurricanes need warm ocean water to develop and strengthen.

El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. During an El Niño, strong upper-level winds roar across the Caribbean and Atlantic, tearing apart developing tropical storms.

In its most recent forecast, the Climate Prediction Center gave a 50 percent chance of an El Niño forming in late summer or early fall.

“With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well,” Colorado State said. The probability of direct hit on the U.S. coast from a major hurricane – classified as a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale – is down to

39 percent from 63 percent.