Critical consequences

‘Witch hunt’ claim could end up looking desperate

Conviction could mute ‘witch hunt’ accusations.

We are about to see the first test of special counsel Robert Mueller’s charges in the Paul Manafort trial that starts today, and the consequences will be critical not only for Manafort but also for President Donald Trump. If Mueller wins a conviction, and I predict he will, it will severely undercut Trump’s contention that the Mueller investigation into Russia’s attack on the 2016 election is nothing more than a politically motivated “witch hunt.”

The multicount indictment against Manafort, Trump’s 2016 campaign manager, alleges two kinds of crimes: 1) hiding from U.S. authorities, including the IRS, millions of dollars in payments for work on behalf of the pro-Russian political party in Ukraine and thenPresident Viktor Yanukovych; and 2) falsifying applications for loans from banks after Yanukovych was deposed and Manafort’s income plunged, imperiling his extravagant lifestyle.

The Eastern District of Virginia court is famous for its fast pace, or “rocket docket.” Nevertheless, it probably will take two days to seat a jury, in which case opening statements would occur Thursday. Mueller’s case will likely be streamlined and fast-paced, with only the detail necessary to wrap everything up at the end. Many witnesses will spend a half hour or less on the stand. They are the bankers, real estate agents and luxury-goods vendors who can attest to Manafort’s highrolling lifestyle and the false content of his tax returns and loan applications.

And based on the road map in the meticulous indictment, Mueller clearly has the goods. As the judge overseeing the case, T.S. Ellis, wrote, “Given the nature of the charges against the defendant and the apparent weight of the evidence against him, (Manafort) faces the very real possibility of spending the rest of his life in prison.”

The dramatic centerpiece of the trial will be testimony from former Manafort deputy (and Trump campaign deputy chair) Rick Gates. Gates agreed in February to plead guilty to sharply reduced false-statement charges and cooperate with the prosecution. He served since at least 2006 as Manafort’s right-hand man. Gates’ testimony will be damning evidence against his former mentor and boss.

How will Manafort defend against this blitzkrieg? He will try to insinuate where possible that the prosecution was politically motivated. And he will mount a ferocious cross-examination of Gates, painting him as a lying government stooge.

Manafort has steadfastly refused to cooperate with the Mueller probe, a mystery given the very high likelihood of conviction. The trial will reveal whether he has ever had any aces up his sleeve. I suspect he does not. In particular, pay attention to whether Manafort chooses to testify. If he avoids the stand, it will suggest that he has never had a cogent strategy for winning at trial, and that his resistance to cooperation has been based on other factors — including the hope of a pardon in return for keeping quiet and essentially acquiescing to the conviction.

What does all this portend for the White House, as Mueller and the Justice Department seem to be moving closer to putting together criminal charges against the president, as well as Donald Trump Jr. and political operative Roger Stone? Plenty. First, Manafort’s jockeying to become Trump’s campaign manager — at no compensation — came after the Yanukovych business dried up and Manafort was scrambling to compensate for the loss of millions in income. Part of the evidence will be Manafort’s effort to obtain $16 million in loans by promising a banking executive a role in the Trump campaign. A conviction would bring corrupt and criminal conduct into the dead center of the Trump campaign.

More generally, Trump’s schoolboy campaign of launching crass tweet insults has put him into a zero-sum relationship with the special counsel. The investigation has already yielded indictments of 32 individuals and three companies, and five guilty pleas. A decisive conviction at trial will strengthen Mueller’s hand while making Trump’s “witch hunt” claim seem ever weaker and more desperate.