Primaries will measure GOP vulnerability, Dem tensions
Four states vote Tuesday, setting up fall midterms
WASHINGTON – Kansas isn’t known as a swing state.
Republicans have a lock on all six statewide elected offices, from governor to insurance commissioner. There’s an all-GOP congressional delegation. And President Donald Trump carried Kansas by more than 20 points in 2016.
But Democrats hope to turn this ruby-red state at least a little bit blue. Kansas voters could play a pivotal role in determining which party controls the U.S. House come November.
This week’s primaries spotlight dynamics driving the 2018 election cycle: the rash of Republican retirements, which have created pickup opportunities for Democrats; the bevy of female candidates, often political neophytes, mounting formidable federal bids; and the tussle between ultraliberals and moderates over the Democratic Party.
Missouri, Michigan and Washington also host spirited gubernatorial, Senate and congressional races Tuesday that will shape the general election landscape.
Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Lynn Jenkins is one of 42 House Republicans not running for re-election this year. That record-high number is a “big reason” Democrats have a chance at winning control of the House, says Dave Wasserman, who analyzes congressional races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Paul Davis, a former state House minority leader, carried the district before, when he unsuccessfully ran for governor against Republican Sam Brownback in 2014.
“It’s almost like he’s an incumbent,” says Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas. “He has no competition.”
On the GOP side, the primary is a seven-way free-for-all. Army veteran Steve Watkins served in Afghanistan and runs as an anti-establishment figure. “Steve is not a lawyer or politician,” his campaign biography boasts. “He’s a leader, family man, conservative, and patriot.”
He faces a squad of former state lawmakers, none of whom has raised significant money or settled on a breakout message.
Loomis says that if Republicans don’t nominate a strong contender, it will make the general election even more competitive. “That’s a toss-up, at worst, for Democrats” in the fall, he predicts.
Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District
In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton carried this district by 1 percentage point – making incumbent GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder a top Democratic target in this election. First elected in 2010, Yoder narrowly won his last race with 51.3 percent.
Democrats face a five-way primary that has highlighted the party’s divisions. On the left flank is Brent Welder, a union organizer turned labor lawyer. He runs on a populist platform that includes expanding Medicare, raising taxes on “giant corporations and billionaires” and banning assault weapons.
Welder snagged endorsements from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic socialist who unseated 10-term New York Democratic Rep. Joe Crowley in a primary in June.
Welder faces questions about whether that super-liberal message will sell in Kansas in a general election. He also faces a set of strong challengers, starting with Sharice Davids, a lesbian and Native American with a compelling personal biography.
“I’ve had to fight my whole life because of who I am, who I love and where I started,” Davids says in a video that highlights her training as a mixed martial arts fighter. A Cornell-educated lawyer, Davids touts herself as a progressive candidate.
Vying for the moderate mantle is Tom Niermann, a former school teacher who has focused on health care and gun safety. “People would give him the best chance of winning in the general election,” Loomis says. “Whether he prevails in a high-energy primary election, I don’t know.”
Whichever candidate emerges as the nominee after Tuesday’s primary will face a tough campaign in Yoder. He has come under fire for his votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, and in favor of the GOP’s sweeping tax cut. Trump praised Yoder after the congressman pushed to include $5 billion for the president’s border wall in a spending bill.
Washington’s 8th Congressional District
Republican Rep. Dave Reichert made this seat a toss-up the instant he decided not to run for an eighth term.
Three leading contenders vie for the Democratic nomination Tuesday. All of them are political newcomers, and the winner is likely to face Dino Rossi, a former state senator.
In the Democratic race, Kim Schrier, a pediatrician, raised the most money – about $1.5 million through June – thanks in part to an endorsement from EMILY’s List, which promotes female candidates who support abortion rights.
The other Democrats include Jason Rittereiser, a former prosecutor, and Shannon Hader, who worked on health issues in the Obama administration.
Rossi is likely to be formidable. He narrowly lost two statewide races, for governor in 2008 and Senate in 2010, and carried the 8th District both times.
Travis N. Ridout, a professor of government and public policy at Washington State University, says he expects Democrats will unite quickly around the winner of Tuesday’s primary and national attention and money will flood in as they pivot to the general election.
Michigan’s 13th Congressional District
The district is one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic seats in the country, so the Democratic primary will almost certainly determine the winner in November.
Rep. John Conyers has represented the Detroit-area district, in its various incarnations, for 52 years. He was forced to resign last year amid a #MeToo movement scandal after being accused of mistreating female staffers over the years, which he denied.
Conyers’ retirement drew a crowded field of would-be successors.
“This is a case where there are a lot of moving pieces because there is no dominant candidate,” says Ed Sarpolus, a pollster for Target-Insyght in Lansing. His most recent poll showed three candidates – Brenda Jones, a City Council president; Rashida Tlaib, a liberal firebrand; and Bill Wild, mayor of Westland – in a virtual tie with about 20 percent of the vote each and 14 percent undecided in mid-July.
As in other Democratic primaries across the country, the race has exposed tensions between more establishment figures and the insurgent forces of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez.
Tlaib – a Muslim of Palestinian heritage in a district long associated with black Detroit – positioned herself as the most liberal and aggressive contender, promising to upend politics-as-usual in Washington.
Jones touts her electoral experience and argues she’s the best positioned to bring federal aid to low-income communities across the district.
She says that she’s most proud of “restoring civility” to Detroit government – and that civility could also go a long way in Congress.
About those other races
There are many other contests in the states holding primaries Tuesday. In Missouri and Michigan, voters will choose nominees for Senate races.
In the Show Me State, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley, are likely to clinch easy primary wins – and quickly pivot to a bruising general election race.
In Michigan, two Republican businessmen are locked in a dead heat for a chance to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow in the election Nov. 6, according to a Detroit Free Press poll.