Milestone men
Verlander, Kershaw reach big numbers
If there are two things baseball fans in general, and Hall of Fame voters in particular, have always revered, it’s round numbers and pitching wins.
The former are still celebrated, be it 600 home runs,
200 hits or even a 3.00 Fielding Independent Pitching mark. The latter is under fire: Pitching wins are viewed as increasingly anachronistic, an inferior measure of a hurler’s resume and, this year, perhaps entirely disregarded when it comes to the National League Cy Young Award.
So what then do we make of Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw hitting a couple of big, round numbers on Sunday, 200 and 150 wins, respectively? And are the former MVPs already Hall of Famers? If the current evolution of thought within the game continues, the answer is likely a resounding yes.
Let’s start with Kershaw and the man to whom he’s inextricably linked: Sandy Koufax.
It took four decades for the Dodgers to develop a generational lefty their fans could revere like Koufax. And while it might seem like sacrilege, Kershaw, 30, may have already equaled Koufax at an age when injuries forced Koufax from the game.
Oh, sure, if you’re talking pure dominance, Koufax is unmatched: three seasons of at least 300 innings pitched and 300 strikeouts; five consecutive ERA titles to close his career; and two World Series MVP trophies.
But Kershaw has pulled up right alongside him, particularly when adjusting for their eras, if not their ERAs.
Kershaw’s 150 wins are 15 fewer than Koufax. He, too, has five ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards, one NL MVP Award.
Kershaw even produced a 300-strikeout season, though his three NL strikeout titles are one fewer than that of Koufax.
And yes, injuries have also slowed Kershaw, to the point he’ll post a third consecutive season of less than
200 innings pitched. In roughly the same 11 seasons that spanned Koufax’s career, Kershaw has pitched
273 fewer innings.
Yet a perfunctory check of progressive and rate stats even the race considerably.
Like Koufax, Kershaw led the NL four times in walks and hits per inning, but Kershaw’s career WHIP of
1.002 ranks fourth all time; at 1.106, Koufax ranks 28th. For all of his dominance, Koufax’s 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings rank lower than Kershaw’s 9.8. And Kershaw’s sublime 4.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks sixth all time, well ahead of Koufax’s 2.93 (although Koufax did post a 4.16 mark in his final six seasons).
Koufax led the NL in FIP six times, Kershaw just twice. Yet pitching in a far more treacherous era for starting pitchers, Kershaw’s career ERA-plus (which adjusts for ballpark and league averages) is 161, greatest ever among starting pitchers. Koufax, pitching off the higher mound his contemporaries enjoyed until 1969, had a 131 ERA-plus.
As for the postseason? Sure, celebrate Koufax’s historic dominance — a 0.95 ERA in eight World Series games, a Game 7 win on just two days’ rest — while noting Kershaw has not matched his regular-season performance in October.
But also note that Koufax’s eight playoff appearances were spread over four postseasons, spanning nine years.
In 2016-17 alone, Kershaw pitched in 11 games, more chances to succeed, sure, but far more to fail, particularly on a gas tank far from full.
Beyond Koufax, Kershaw is on a career track that closely mirrors a bevy of Hall of Famers — Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver, Koufax and Greg Maddux among them. According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS Hall of Fame metric, Kershaw is just shy of an “average” Hall of Fame pitcher, a mark he should reach with a couple of more seasons of solid production.
With that said, there aren’t many who wouldn’t already vote for Kershaw should his career get cut short.
Verlander, 35, is pretty close to a slam-dunk, too. Yet his path to Cooperstown will be a more traditional one.
His ERA (3.41), WHIP (1.168) and ERA-plus (125) all lack Kershaw’s historic greatness. Yet at 200 wins, Verlander has already won the longevity battle.
In great health and currently pitching at a dominant level, Verlander seems a safe bet to reach the 240-win mark. That would put him in a rent district populated by Hall of Famers such as Juan Marichal and Whitey Ford. At that point, his wins paired with his dominant traits — five strikeout titles and 2,639 overall, and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning for a decade and a half — would likely be impossible to ignore for both the traditional and progressive voting blocs.
Verlander also has 11 postseason wins, an American League Championship Series MVP Award and, so far, one World Series ring.
That came at the expense of Kershaw, who still seeks his first championship. Either way, he looks a solid bet for Cooperstown, where he should be joined by at least one contemporary.