History shows replacing Heisman QB not easy
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Saturday, the Louisville football team plays its first game since the departure of Lamar Jackson, the school’s first Heisman Trophy winner.
Jackson left a huge void in the offense, and it should come as no surprise that teams historically are worse after they lose Heisman quarterbacks. How much worse?
Of the past 17 cases — dating to Brigham Young after Ty Detmer left in the early 1990s — 16 of 17 teams have finished with worse records after losing Heisman-winning quarterbacks than they did with those quarterbacks. That is the history facing Louisville. The one team that improved was Southern California in 2003 — but only with another quarterback who would eventually also win the Heisman. The Trojans were 11-2 when Carson Palmer won in 2002, 12-1 in Matt Leinart’s first year as the starter in 2003 and then 13-0 when Leinart won in 2004.
(One other technicality: Oklahoma went 12-2 when Sam Bradford won the Heisman in 2008 and 12-2 again after he left in 2010. But Bradford played just three games in 2009 due to injury, making that the Sooners’ first season without Bradford as the full-time starter. They finished 8-5.)
Seven times in the past half-century, quarterbacks have returned for additional seasons after winning the Heisman, though no quarterback has won the award twice.
Four of those teams have rolled through seasons with a Heisman-winning quarterback, won fewer games the following year when the quarterback returned and then won fewer still the year after without their star quarterback.
Florida State went 14-0 and won the national championship during Jameis Winston’s Heisman season in 2013, finished 13-1 with a less-effective Winston in 2014 and then slumped to 10-3 in 2015.
Similarly, Texas A&M went 11-2 in
2012 as Johnny Manziel won the Heisman, then 9-4 in 2013 and 8-5 in 2014.
Florida, on the other hand, finished
9-4 in 2007 with Heisman winner Tim Tebow and then won 13 games in each of the following two seasons under Tebow, though the quarterback did not win the Heisman in either.
In all, the 23 teams to replace Heisman quarterbacks in the past half-century have lost an average of 2.17 wins from the quarterback’s final season as the starter to the following year. The largest drop was six wins, most recently from Auburn’s 14-0 national title season under Cam Newton to an 8-5 finish the following season.
USC also won 12 games with Leinart in 2005 but still managed to eke out 11 with John David Booty in 2006, and Ohio State did the same in 2006 and
2007 with Troy Smith and then Todd Boeckman, respectively.
Oregon, meanwhile, went 13-2 in
2014 with Marcus Mariota but has not won more than nine games in any of the three seasons since.
Louisville finished 9-4 when Jackson won the Heisman in 2016 and 8-5 when he didn’t in 2017. Keeping the streak of eight-win seasons alive means avoiding the dubious history that has befallen similar teams in the past.