Assessing bests, sleepers in Group of Five conferences

For each of the five Football Bowl Subdivision Group of Five conferences, here are the best teams, sleeper teams and teams least likely to succeed as the long offseason finally draws to a close.

American Athletic Conference

Best team: Central Florida

Sleeper team: Temple

Least likely to succeed: Connecticut Central Florida remains the class of the AAC behind a new coaching staff led by former Missouri assistant Josh Heupel. Temple coach Geoff Collins believes the Owls are ready to make a run at a division title. Connecticut is taking steps under Randy Edsall, but there’s another year of struggles ahead.

Conference USA

Best team: Florida Atlantic

Sleeper team: Marshall

Least likely to succeed: Charlotte Lane Kiffin and FAU are the class of the league and a threat to crack 10 wins for the second year in a row. But don’t sleep on Marshall, which houses a defense more than good enough to lift the Thundering Herd to a division title. Charlotte has been a non-factor since joining the conference; that doesn’t seem likely to change in 2018.

Mid-American Conference

Best team: Toledo

Sleeper team: Buffalo

Least likely to succeed: Kent State Toledo’s firepower at the skill positions gives the Rockets a slight edge over Ohio and Northern Illinois, though the Bobcats and Huskies are built to win a MAC championship. Buffalo’s building project under Lance Leipold led to bowl eligibility in 2017 and the possibility of a top-two finish in this year’s East Division. Kent State will need to be patient as the program moves forward under new coach Sean Lewis.

Mountain West

Best team: Boise State

Sleeper team: Utah State

Least likely to succeed: San Jose State The Broncos look like the best team in the Group of Five and the favorite for the access-bowl bid to a New Year’s Six game. Don’t overlook Utah State, which could ride its overall experience to eight or nine wins should quarterback play improve. San Jose State played better down the stretch last season, a positive sign, but there’s another year of work ahead before Brent Brennan and the Spartans can be put into the mix for bowl game contention.

Sun Belt

Best team: Arkansas State

Sleeper team: Georgia State

Least likely to succeed: Texas State Arkansas State’s biggest edge comes at quarterback, where Justice Hansen is the Sun Belt’s best by a significant margin. Another year in Shawn Elliott’s system and the program’s solid recruiting has Georgia State in line to make another run at seven wins and a bowl berth. Texas State might be better, but it would be hard for the Bobcats to get much worse.