Herman’s year couldn’t have gotten off to worse start
Texas and Michigan top 2018’s first Misery Index
For most of the great coaching tenures, Year 2 is when the magic happens. Nick Saban jumped from eight wins to
10 at LSU in his second year, then from six to 12 at Alabama. Urban Meyer’s Year
2 records are 9-3 (Bowling Green), 12-0 (Utah) and 13-1 (Florida). Bob Stoops won the national title in his second season at Oklahoma. Steve Spurrier went
10-2 at Florida and Pete Carroll 11-2 at Southern California.
No matter what the roster looked like when those coaches arrived, Year 2 was when the culture took hold, the misfits were weeded out and the ultimate destination came into focus. It’s happened over and over again for a reason: For all the talk about patience, the great coaches typically need only two years to start showing greatness.
That’s a big reason Tom Herman is going to be under the microscope in a big way at Texas this season and why the fans’ reaction to a season-opening
34-29 flop at Maryland was so intense. It might not be time to panic quite yet, but that moment isn’t too far over the horizon.
When he was hired after the 2016 season, Herman was the hottest coaching prospect in America, having knocked off six ranked teams in two seasons at Houston including Florida State and Oklahoma. After firing Charlie Strong three years into his tenure, Texas dramatically pulled Herman away from LSU at the last minute, a move that united a dream candidate with his dream job.
But it’s unclear whether Texas is in a better place right now than it was five years ago when Mack Brown was on his final march toward the television booth. Brown, after all, won eight, nine and eight games during his final three turbulent years and actually had a chance to win the Big 12 going into the regularseason finale in 2013. Since then, Texas’ win totals are six, five, five and seven, and the pressure to return the Longhorns to something resembling national relevance is growing more desperate with each passing year.
Herman losing to Maryland for the second year in a row not only is a horrible look and something that should never happen but also calls into question whether progress is being made or whether Texas is stuck in the land of the mediocre for another season and missing out on the historically significant Year 2 bump.
For that reason, Texas leads the first Misery Index of 2018, a weekly measurement of knee-jerk reactions based on what each fan base just watched.
Four more most miserable
Michigan: There are going to be a lot of bad Jim Harbaugh takes over the next week after a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame, including from inside the Michigan fan base, that focus on his personality, his recruiting gimmicks and his spring break trips to Paris and Rome. Those things, however, have nothing to do with where the Wolverines are now. What does matter, however, are Harbaugh’s puzzling staff choices on the offensive side of the ball. Michigan’s offense looked outdated and slow and lacked any obvious philosophy or purpose last season. But rather than getting rid of Pep Hamilton, Harbaugh added more cooks to the kitchen in Jim McElwain and Ed Warinner, neither of whom were exactly lighting it up at their last destinations. If you want to blast Harbaugh, that’s totally fair game.
Texas Tech: It took only two plays against Mississippi to see the Red Raiders defense in a familiar position — disorganized, breaking down in the secondary, allowing D.K. Metcalf to catch an easy 58-yard touchdown. Sure, Texas Tech caught a tough draw in the opener against a dangerous Ole Miss offense, but allowing 546 yards in a 47-27 loss isn’t a great way to start for Kliff Kingsbury when he had 10 starters back on defense this year. Two of them were ejected for targeting, by the way, indicating a total breakdown of discipline. Based on the thousands upon thou- sands of empty seats in Houston for this one, Texas Tech fans might be losing patience with Kingsbury as he starts his sixth season. With Houston, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and TCU coming up in the Red Raiders’ next five games, things could get tense very quickly.
Colorado State: The Rams have already played two games, and they’ve both been lousy. In losses to Hawaii and Colorado, the Rams gave up an average of 44 points, 228.5 rushing yards and 8.8 yards per play. That is a recipe for a very long season and perhaps some trouble for Mike Bobo, who is expected to be better than 21-20 at this point given the level of funding the program has received and a new stadium that opened last year.
North Carolina: The season got off on the wrong foot for Larry Fedora when a handful of players were suspended for selling shoes in violation of NCAA rules and he made his infamous comments at ACC Media Days about football being “under attack.” But that was a tempest in a teapot compared with the real reason he is probably not long for the North Carolina job. Coming off a disastrous 3-9 season, the last thing Tar Heels fans wanted to see was a season-opening loss at California. But that’s what happened as North Carolina fell behind by three touchdowns before ultimately losing 24-17. The entirety of Fedora’s success early in Chapel Hill was based on a dynamic offense and developing quarterbacks, but 137 passing yards with four interceptions against Cal is damning, as is the failure to win when the Tar Heels defense gave up just 279 total yards. It could get even worse for Fedora in two weeks when he has to face Central Florida.