Poll: Election edge goes to Dems, female candidates
By 58 percent to 34 percent, most want Congress to stand up to Trump
WASHINGTON – The political landscape for the midterm elections favors Democrats in general and female candidates in particular, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll says, raising the prospect of real perils for President Donald Trump in the next Congress.
At the traditional Labor Day start of the campaign’s fall sprint, those surveyed said 50 percent-39 percent that they were more likely to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, not the Republican one. That double-digit advantage, if it holds, probably would enable Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives, giving them the power to launch investigations and even consider impeachment of the president.
“I feel that the good people need to have their voices heard in this election,” said Erica May, 34, a political independent and stay-at-home mom from Hood River, Oregon, who was among those polled. Trump “has made it OK to say and do things that were generally felt to be inappropriate or immoral or just rude.”
Trump supporters and opponents alike called the stakes in November higher than usual.
If the GOP loses power, Gregory Bailey, 58, a Republican from Oklahoma City, warned in a follow-up interview, “the Democrats are just going to stifle getting any positive legislation through by wasting their time trying to impeach Trump.”
Democrats need an advantage nationally of about 8 percentage points to flip at least 23 House seats that would bring a majority, said David Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The 11-point edge in the poll may understate the risk for Republicans because undecided voters – 10 percent in this survey – historically and in special elections this year have broken against the party in power.
By 58 percent to 34 percent, those surveyed said they wanted to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to Trump rather than one that mostly cooperates with him. The poll of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone Aug. 23-28, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
The numbers of female candidates on the ballot are shattering records, according to statistics maintained by the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. An unprecedented number of women have been nominated for the House, Senate, governorships and state legislatures.
“This year, we’re not just breaking records; we’re blowing through them,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the center. In House races, 226 women have won nominations, dwarfing the previous record 167 women in 2016. An additional 251 women seek nominations in states that haven’t held their primaries.
Opposition to Trump prompted some women who had never run before to seek office, and they have been more successful than in the past in winning nominations. Fifty percent of the Democratic nominations for the House in open seats, those without an incumbent running, have been won by women, Wasserman said. When at least one man and one woman sought the nomination in those contests, women have won 69 percent of the time.
“The 2018 midterm elections could be described in one word: R-E-S-P-EC-T,” said David Paleologos of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. He said the #MeToo movement and alarm about Trump’s record and rhetoric contributed to the rise in women running.
There’s a gender gap and a generation gap on the question: 21 percent of women but just 9 percent of men would prefer to vote for a female candidate. Those 18 to 24 years old would prefer a female candidate over a male by 24 percent to 7 percent. Those 65 and older would narrowly prefer a male candidate, 11 percent to 9 percent.
Why the preference?
The reason most often named by those who preferred a female candidate is the belief she would be “more likely to care about the issues that matter most to me.” Women were seen as “more likely to shake things up in Washington.”
“As of right now, it’s primarily dominated by males,” said Benjamin Jones, 21, an independent from Queens, New York. “It’s good to have a change, get a different perspective.”
The reason most often named by those who preferred a male candidate is the belief that men are “less emotional” and that they are “better leaders.”