Kavanaugh hearing could be a political minefield
WASHINGTON – There are political landmines everywhere as the Senate Judiciary Committee figures out what to do now that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh faces a sexual assault allegation.
Both Republicans and Democrats will try to step carefully as the committee moves to hold new public hearings on Kavanaugh’s alleged sexual misconduct in high school. Analysts say GOP senators may have more to lose as they try to quickly push President Donald Trump’s nominee to a vote.
“It’s just hard to figure out any plausible scenario where the Republicans come out ahead,” said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California.
Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has invited both Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, to testify Monday about her allegation that a drunken, 17-year-old Kavanaugh pinned her down at a party in 1982, groped her and covered her mouth when she tried to scream.
Here are some possible scenarios and their political implications for both parties:
Kavanaugh testifies alone
In some ways, this could be the best scenario for Republicans, said Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno.
“Then they can say, ‘Hey, we tried, and (Ford) wouldn’t come,’ ” he said. “They’d take the heat for a week and then it’s gone.”
The problem with that strategy for Republicans is that one of them could end up alienating female voters by attacking Ford when she isn’t there to defend herself, said Jim Manley, a Democratic consultant and former aide to retired Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass.
Both Kavanaugh and Ford testify
This scenario is in doubt now, but if an agreement can be reached for Ford to testify soon, it will be a tricky hearing for Republicans, Herzik said.
“They aren’t going to want to ask tough questions because all they have to do is make some faux pas and that’s going to become the headline,” the professor said. “You can just imagine their staffers cringing if they try to ask questions like: ‘Were you drunk too? What were you dressed like?’ It could go very wrong.”
Democrats need to make sure they don’t overplay their hand – a danger that is higher since at least two Democrats on the committee are considering a run for president in 2020, Manley said.
No new public hearings are held
If Grassley decides to forgo a hearing altogether, senators could avoid an emotional public spectacle that could inflame voters on both sides.
If senators heard from Ford in private, “it would be antiseptic emotionally, but it would provide senators information to make decisions,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean, who has worked in both House and Senate leadership offices.
The FBI opens an investigation
Although unlikely, it’s possible that the White House could end up agreeing to ask the FBI to reopen Kavanaugh’s background investigation.
This would be the most “logical” next step and it would align with precedent, according to Kristine Lucius, who was Sen. Patrick Leahy’s top legal and policy adviser when the Vermont Democrat led the committee.
“It is malpractice, in my opinion, for the administration to say, ‘No, we don’t want an investigation by trained investigators into what happened here,’ ” she said.