In the midterms, it’s NOT the economy, stupid!
Immigration, health care and Trump also are on voters’ minds, polls show
The economy isn’t the biggest topic on Katherine Cousins’ mind as Tuesday midterm elections draw closer.
It’s the Trump administration’s tone and policies, which she says have lowered the country’s standing around the globe.
“I’m not thinking about the election primarily from an economic standpoint,” says Cousins, 45, who lives in Newburyport, Massachusetts. “I’m so shocked by how much our country has declined over two years in terms of what we stand for.”
Yet she says the economy – specifically Trump’s escalating trade war and the rise in health care costs – still ranks high and will be an important reason she’s voting for Democratic candidates.
Her view of the economy’s role in Tuesday’s vote captures the sentiment of much of the country on both the left and right of the political spectrum as voters digest the best U.S. economy and labor market in more than a decade.
With unemployment at a near 50year low, the share of Americans mentioning the economy as the nation’s most important problem was near the lowest on record in October at 13 percent, according to a Gallup Poll. That’s down from a peak of 86 percent during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 and as high as 53 percent in 2014.
“This time around, it may very well be, ‘It is not the economy, stupid! It is other issues,’ ” says Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.
“The average Joe and Jane isn’t worrying too much about a recession,” Yardeni adds.
Yet the economy still ranked fourth among top election issues, behind health care, immigration and taxes, and the deficit, according to a USA TODAY/ Suffolk University poll in October. That beat 14 other issues, from gun control to the opioid crisis.
Seventy-four percent of voters – including 85 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans – say the economy is “very important” to their votes, according to a Pew Research Center survey in late September.
This time, however, it’s not all about jobs, jobs, jobs. The trade war, taxes, the impact of immigration policy on the labor market and rising health care costs were the top economic issues cited by voters interviewed by USA TODAY. Some voters appear not as deeply partisan as in past elections, saying they’ll
likely pick both Democratic and Republican candidates, depending on their stances on specific issues. Take a “wrecking ball” to econo
my: That hasn’t stopped Trump from casting the election in far more dire economic terms. “At stake in this Election is whether we continue the extraordinary prosperity we have achieved — or whether we let the Radical Democrat Mob take a giant wrecking ball to our Country and our Economy!” Trump tweeted this week.
That warning doesn’t square with many economists’ analyses. Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase notes the federal tax cut passed late last year – which Trump touts as his biggest accomplishment – is a done deal and won’t be modified even if Democrats gain control of both the House and Senate because the president would veto the measure. And Trump’s rollback of many regulations were carried out by executive action rather than legislation.
All of the possible outcomes of the election are “unlikely to generate legislation that would have a major economic impact,” Feroli says.
“If this election is a referendum on President Trump, it is going to be more about the man’s style, love him or hate him, ” says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, a Tokyo-based global bank with offices in New York. Voters worry trade war will cost jobs: Voters do have concerns. Cousins is an executive with a consumer products company and frets that Trump’s tariffs could sharply raise costs on the firm’s goods made in China, battering profits.
“People at the company are really worried about their jobs,” she says. “I don’t believe trade wars are the best way to find compromise or common ground.” On health care, she says, “I worry about rising costs and declining coverage.”
The economic ramifications of Trump’s efforts to chip away at the Affordable Care Act are striking a nerve across the country, says Tom Block, a Washington policy strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors. “People are concerned about losing parts of Obamacare, such as coverage for pre-existing conditions.”
Ray Tyc, 64, of Montgomery, Alabama, is a supporter of Trump and Republican candidates, and he, too, is focusing mostly on noneconomic issues – namely support for a pro-life ballot measure and candidates who back that amendment. “I think the economy is going along quite well,” says Tyc, a postal clerk and retired Air Force officer. He likes Trump’s tough stance toward China, and that has helped solidify his support for Republican candidates. “I think it needs to be handled,” he says of China’s trade and business practices.
Immigration also is near the top of his list. “We are a nation, and we have to protect our borders,” he says. Many voters fear immigrants will take their jobs, Rupkey says.
Tyc adds, however, “We need immigrants and their labor pool.”
❚ “I’m voting on taxes:” For some Americans, economic issues don’t divide neatly across partisan lines. Rick Vaccarelli, 67, of Moon Township, Pennsylvania, says rising state and local taxes are making it tougher to meet expenses on his retirement income
“This election I’m voting on taxes,” says Vaccarelli, a former vice president of sales. “They continue to spiral out of control.” But, the registered Republican adds, “I will not be voting straight Republican. There are strong Democrats in our state.”