NFL coaches going for broke more often
Jarrett Bell: Aggressiveness grows on fourth down, 2-point conversions
Anthony Lynn can imagine the heat that would have come if the Chargers didn’t cap their splendid comeback last week at Kansas City by converting a two-point conversion in the final seconds.
He’s hardly fazed by the prospect. “All of the decisions are good when they work,” the Chargers coach said. “When they don’t work, you’re open to the criticism. I get it.”
What Lynn didn’t get, though, was blowback earlier this season for, well, kicking a field goal.
“A lot of times it depends on when you decide to go for it,” he explained. “It was fourth-and-two, we’re kicking a field goal on the opening drive and people are questioning that? Give me a break.”
Then Lynn, whose Chargers (11-3) head into a Saturday night showdown
against the Ravens with an NFL-longest four-game winning streak, let out a hearty chuckle. Sometimes, there is no end to the second-guessing for Lynn and his 31 counterparts as NFL head coaches, who as a group appear to be going for broke more often than ever with two-point conversion attempts and fourth-down gambles.
Leaguewide, NFL teams converted
56.1 percent of their fourth-down tries through Week 15, up from last year’s
46 percent clip for the season. With 258 conversions (460 attempts), the total of fourth-down conversions for all of last season (223) has already been surpassed. And the success rate on twopoint conversions continues to rise, too, at 50 percent through Week 15, on pace to top the 43 percent from last year.
“Some of this is tied to the analytics,” Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy said. “The chart says you should go for two, or go for it on fourth-and-one. But the chart doesn’t take into account what the situation is. You can’t take your gut feel and common sense out of the equation.”
When the Eagles rolled to a Super Bowl crown last season while leading the league in fourth-down conversions
(17) and fourth-down attempts (26), it added an exciting layer to the game that would make Roger Goodell and his competition committee blush. And the Eagles’ success undoubtedly bolstered the license for more coaches to take more risks as key chapters in the book on game-management are being rewritten in the NFL, for better or for worse.
Take Frank Reich, the first-year coach for the Colts who came off Doug Pederson’s staff in Philadelphia. He lost two games this season, at Jacksonville and against Houston, with fourth-down gambles that backfired. In a 6-0 loss at Jacksonville, a fumble on a risky jet sweep on fourth-and-inches in the second quarter set up a Jaguars’ field goal in a tight game. Against Houston, he went on fourth-and-4 from the Colts’ 43-yard line in overtime, a very risky down and distance. Andrew Luck’s incompletion gave the Texans a short field to drive for the winning field goal.
While players lauded their coach for his trust in their ability, those situational risks might ultimately determine whether the Colts make the playoffs.
“I’m not playing to tie,” Reich said after the loss to Houston. “I’ll do that 10 times out of 10. That’s just the way it’s got to roll.”
It can be damned if you do, damned if you don’t. First-year Titans coach Mike Vrabel went for a two-point conversion that didn’t fly in the final seconds of a one-point loss against the Chargers. But he won in overtime against the Eagles with a 10-yard, Marcus Mariota-to-Corey Davis touchdown pass, eschewing a chip-shot field goal that would have tied the score.
Then there’s Dallas coach Jason Garrett, skewered (and by his team owner, too) after punting on fourth-and-1 in overtime from Houston’s 42, rather than, say, giving the ball to Ezekiel Elliott. Since that loss, he’s coached with more aggression, including a fake punt attempt that provided momentum in a season-turning win at Philadelphia.
“You tend to take more chances now,” said Lynn, who broke into the NFL in
1993 as a backup running back for the Broncos. He’s mindful of how the NFL’s brand has evolved with continual rules changes that favor the offense. “Back in the day, it was more balanced with the defense.”
Lynn didn’t hesitate to go for two after the Chargers rallied from a 14-point deficit in the final five minutes at Kansas City. As they were driving for the score that pulled them to within a point
28-27, Lynn told offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt to have a two-point call ready because the decision was already made. Then Lynn told Philip Rivers, who had thrown a 1-yard TD pass to Mike Williams, “to go win the game.”
His mind-set in this case was bolstered by momentum and circumstance. Had the game gone to overtime, the risk included Kansas City winning the coin toss and producing a touchdown with arguably the NFL’s most explosive offense. Plus, the second-year coach wanted to make a certain statement while acknowledging that the goal of winning the AFC West goes through Kansas City.
After losing the previous games against the Chiefs during his tenure, his bottom-line mission was right there to be had. “We didn’t go there to tie,” he said, with words similar to Reich’s statement.
“If we’re in the same situation against Baltimore,” Lynn added, “we may be kicking the PAT and going to overtime.”
Or maybe not.
The Chargers have converted an NFL-high six two-point conversions this season, in eight attempts. They have also been among the NFL’s most proficient teams on fourth downs, converting seven of eight (87.5 percent). Only the Chiefs (10 of 11, 90.9 percent) have a better fourth-down conversion rate.
Still, Lynn wants to buy into the numbers, as impressive as they are, only so much.
“I’m an analytical person by nature,” he said. “Analytics can point you in the right direction. But I think they work better in other sports. The physicality of football can change the analytics in a hurry. So I definitely don’t live by it.
“And there are sometimes on the golf course when I wish I didn’t use analytics at all.”