Warriors may face playoff challenge
There are contenders aplenty in loaded West, but Toronto could be biggest threat
LOS ANGELES – Now that their silly season is out of the way — that weird and fractured week when they couldn’t win a game and Kevin Durant and Draymond Green contrived a fiery little soap opera — common sense and recent history suggest the Warriors will once more be the team to beat when the NBA playoffs roll around.
The Warriors don’t even have the best record in their conference, let alone in the league, but with their minds resettled and form flowing again, it takes little imagination to see a path for the defending champions to yet another title.
Statistics and the oddsmakers tend to agree. FiveThirtyEight.com lists Golden State with a 55 percent chance of winning it all, while Bovada prices Steph Curry, Durant and company at a prohibitive -155.
But all empires crumble eventually and there will come a time when the pride of the Bay Area no longer rules basketball, and a collection of teams like their chances of topping the established order this season. Some of those aspirations are justified; others need some kind of miracle. We analyze which are the best positioned teams to take a crack at the Warriors, and which approach has the best chance of success.
Catch them early
The Warriors’ record offers scant cause for optimism. Golden State was 16-2 in first-round playoff matchups over the past four seasons and never came close to being troubled. However, they have largely gotten favorable matchups against opposition poorly equipped to give any kind of test. Given the loaded nature of the Western Conference now, it might turn out a little different.
The Warriors would be a strong favorite against any seventh or eighth seed, but the Pelicans and Trail Blazers could easily end up in either of those spots and might see themselves as a live underdog.
A very young Anthony Davis was outstanding even as the fledgling Pelicans got swept in 2015, racking up 126 points across four games. Davis said he wants to be considered the best player in basketball, and there would be no better way to show it than by imposing his will and physicality against the champs.
New Orleans lost narrowly recently in a game in which Davis was strangely subdued but claimed a morale-boosting victory last season when Davis had an outstanding night.
Portland took two games off Golden State last season, and Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are a double act tough to stop. However, even if Lillard was able to outplay Curry, there is too much threat for the Trail Blazers to stand a chance of contending.
How much of a long shot to beat the Warriors:
Pelicans: Longer than Davis’ wingspan, multiplied by the Warriors’ average ppg.
Trail Blazers: Longer than a trip to the same moon that Steph thinks man has never visited.
The one-man bands
Few teams can withstand a lightsout night from LeBron James, James Harden or Giannis Antetokounmpo. The hard part, even for stars of that caliber, is doing it four times, all while trying to keep worldly talents Curry and Durant in check.
James spearheaded an improbable title triumph once before but doesn’t have a foil like Kyrie Irving to call upon this time. And the Lakers’ inconsistencies, which crop up with regularity, would only be magnified against the NBA’s most powerful unit.
Antetokounmpo is blossoming into the main man in basketball and a tran- scendent superstar but it would be a huge ask for him, in the spotlight of the Finals, to pull the Bucks onto his shoulders amid incessant defensive attention.
The bookies make the Rockets the likeliest challenger despite their discord this season. That’s partly on the back of how close they came in the Western Conference finals last year and because Harden is unstoppable at times, even with Chris Paul seemingly declining. Especially when he is allowed to take unlimited steps. Last year’s 3-1 lead not only had Houston on the verge of a win until Paul got injured but, for the first time, made Golden State look genuinely flustered.
How much of a long shot:
Bucks: Longer than Giannis’ wingspan, multiplied by the Warriors’ shooting percentage
Lakers: Longer than James’ patience, which isn’t saying much Rockets: Longer than last year but not that long. Also longer than Harden’s fifth step before dribbling.
The grinders
Next is a group of teams that would try to outduel Golden State with teamwork, resiliency and mistake-free bas- ketball. Oklahoma City has a really nice mesh between Russell Westbrook and Paul George, a combo that should translate well into the playoffs after extra time to develop. Steven Adams’ forceful impact continues to be undervalued.
The Nuggets sent a real signal of intent to begin the season by winning at Golden State, and the Warriors don’t have anyone who can match up well with Nikola Jokic, but the Serbian big man would need to perform even better in a playoff series.
Keeping Durant and Curry quiet would be a tall order for any of these teams, but the 76ers have Jimmy Butler to add some serious grind, defense and clutch performance to what already was a fine squad, though it will need to come of age.
Meanwhile, the Celtics have a lot of parts capable of making life difficult for the Warriors. Irving has stood shoulder to shoulder with the champs before, firing off the three-point dagger that is the difference between four Warriors’ championships and three. If the Celtics survive the Eastern Conference, with Jayson Tatum on song and Gordon Hayward fully fit, they’d like their chances.
How much of a long shot:
Denver: Longer than Jokic’s flights home, all 18 hours (with two layovers) of them 76ers: Longer than a Joel Embiid Twitter session
Thunder: Longer than the time that has passed since Russ and KD were buds Celtics: Not as long as the Celtics’ bench, one of the main reasons Boston would have a shot
Top contender
The playoffs have not been kind to the Raptors, but even a year after entering the postseason as the Eastern Conference’s top seed, this campaign feels like a total reboot.
Kawhi Leonard’s addition at the expense of DeMar DeRozan has given Toronto extra versatility and a tougher edge.
The Raptors won at Oracle Arena last week even without Leonard, and their dominant start to the season doesn’t feel like a blip. Leonard has come out on top in the Finals against a star-laden opponent before — with the Spurs against the Heat in 2014 — while Kyle Lowry’s flexibility and attacking mind-set have bothered the Warriors.
Both teams need to navigate their respective sides of the bracket first, but this head-to-head would offer the most compelling, and probably most competitive, Finals showdown.
How much of a long shot:
Raptors: Not especially long. This isn’t an even matchup, but it’s the closest thing we’ve got to it.