Some vacancies more attractive than others
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The NFL’s annual coaching carousel got off to a fast and furious start as six teams fired their head coaches before most restaurants stopped serving breakfast the day after the regular season ended.
This latest wave of firings began Sunday night as the Jets dismissed Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers axed Dirk Koetter. They joined the Browns and Packers, who fired their coaches in-season.
Then Monday morning, the list of fired coaches expanded to include Marvin Lewis (Bengals), Adam Gase (Dolphins), Vance Joseph (Broncos) and Steve Wilks (Cardinals).
The Packers and Browns have a bit of a head start on their counterparts in the market for head coaches. Now teams will begin moving quickly to ensure they get a shot at the top candidates.
Meanwhile, just as it’s important for team officials to find the ultimate fit for their teams, coaches should be just as careful when considering offers. The top candidates will have the luxury of being extremely selective. Bad fits can doom a coaching opportunity. Of the eight coaches fired this season,
five of them held their positions for three years or fewer. So although it’s hard to turn down guaranteed money, coaches need to think long and hard about some of these jobs.
They must take into account the state of the roster, the stability of the front office, the support from ownership and how they see themselves fitting into the overall picture. Taking a job merely for the sake of becoming a head coach could translate into a short stint.
Here’s a look at the current job openings and how they rank in terms of desirability.
1. Packers
In today’s NFL, coaches are expected to produce quick turnarounds. That’s why a roster with a stable quarterback situation is most attractive. The Packers are fortunate to still have future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers in top form. The chance to work with him will entice many candidates.
Green Bay also has key pieces on defense, as well as a track record of organizational stability. The Packers generally practice patience when it comes to roster building, which bodes well for a new coach. The franchise historically is hesitant to spend big in free agency, but there’s currently about $44 million in cap space available, according to Overthecap.com. A smart coaching hire, effective spending in free agency and a strong draft class could quickly put Green Bay back in the ranks of the league’s contenders.
2. Browns
This is a young team led by a talented and confident quarterback in Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has rising standouts on defense as well, with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward leading the way.
John Dorsey was aggressive in Year 1 of his roster construction, making trades for veterans while landing a strong draft class. Look for more of the same this offseason. Roughly $80 million in cap space will position Cleveland for another active run in free agency. Because of the potential displayed by Mayfield and his teammates in the second half of the season, the Browns’ job will intrigue a number of top-level candidates. Dorsey has a strong relationship with Mike McCarthy, and multiple reports say owner Jimmy Haslam is high on Josh McDaniels.
3. Jets
Quarterback Sam Darnold and about $106 million in cap space make this a very attractive situation for potential coaches. Darnold showed poise and talent as a rookie, and after years of futility, the Jets appear to have finally struck gold at the most important position on the field.
But the state of the front office makes this a little less desirable a job compared to Green Bay and Cleveland. General manager Mike Maccagnan has made some questionable moves, and some around the league question whether or not he gave Todd Bowles adequate support. He has managed to hang on to his job for at least another season, however.
4. Broncos
John Elway hasn’t managed to get this team out of rebuild mode following Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl victory and subsequent retirement. But Denver does have talent on defense, particularly in its pass rush with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. The Broncos also have a solid signal-caller in Case Keenum, though he might be better suited as a bridge to a true franchise quarterback. And don’t forget Pro Bowl rookie running back Phillip Lindsay. Denver has about $47 million in cap space to help improve this roster.
5. Buccaneers
This could mark the drop-off in desirability from top jobs. Since reaching the playoffs in 2007, Tampa Bay has had four head coaches and only three winning seasons. The front office is com- mitted to Jameis Winston, so the new coach would have to be a fan of him and commit to helping the former No. 1 overall pick live up to the expectations. Winston is physically gifted, but his decision-making and maturity have been issues. If a coach can connect with him and address his inconsistency, one of the franchise’s biggest problems will be solved. From there, the Bucs need to improve the supporting cast around him, especially on defense.
6. Dolphins
The Dolphins have unloaded a lot of talent over the last couple of years, but they don’t have a lot of cap space to work with. Ryan Tannehill has been adequate as a starting quarterback, but he’s had issues with durability and consistency, and the new coach would have to help decide whether he’s the longterm answer.
7. Cardinals
The Cardinals have their quarterback in Josh Rosen. They also have a talented running back (David Johnson) to help ease pressure on him. But this roster remains in need of a lot of work. Some people around the league have questions about the quality of the Arizona front office, and the decision to fire Wilks after one year could give some candidates pause about taking on this project.
8. Bengals
On one hand, the Bengals could be attractive because ownership has demonstrated patience and loyalty with Marvin Lewis, who held that head coaching job since 2003. Andy Dalton remains under contract, so that’s another need checked off. But the Bengals never have displayed a true sense of urgency to win. They don’t go all out when it comes to free agency or spending, and they don’t display a lot of innovation in their organizational approach. Transforming this team from average to a legitimate contender could prove challenging.