X factors that could decide wild-card games
The NFL playoffs are here, so it’s time to dig into the matchups. Here’s one X factor for each team in the wild-card round:
Colts at Texans
Indianapolis: Cornerback Pierre
Desir: The biggest difference between Indy’s Week 4 loss to the Texans and its Week 14 win was the production of Houston receiver DeAndre Hopkins. While mostly in zone coverage, Indianapolis gave up 10 catches on 12 targets to Hopkins in the first meeting for 169 yards and one touchdown. In the rematch, the Colts used a lot of press-bail techniques to jam Hopkins at the line and disrupt his timing, with Desir often shadowing him. Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus did an excellent job of occasionally giving him help and funneling Hopkins into tighter spaces.
Houston: Pass rush: Indianapolis allowed six sacks in its 10 victories but gave up 12 in its six losses. When Andrew Luck has time to throw, he can be surgical. When he faces pressure, he can be prone to making mistakes. Houston’s pass rush is going to have to be more than just defensive end J.J. Watt and linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, who combined for 25 of the 43 sacks.
Seahawks at Cowboys
Seattle: Third-down defense: The Seahawks ranked fifth in the NFL in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 34.97 percent of their tries. The Cowboys, even with their early-season struggles, ranked 10th in conversion rate at 41.4. Although Dallas has changed significantly from when these two teams played in Week 3 thanks to a midseason trade for receiver Amari Cooper, the Seahawks won that
game, in large part, because they held the Cowboys to 3 of 13 on third-down attempts. Both teams emphasize ball control, with Dallas ranking fifth in time of possession (31:32) and Seattle sixth (31:28). Keeping Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Cooper on the bench will be an important step for Seattle as it looks to set the game’s terms. Dallas: Stopping receiver Tyler
Lockett: Few are discussing the season Lockett had, but his production was remarkable. He caught 57 passes for 965 yards and 10 TDs as Russell Wilson established a perfect 158.3 passer rating on the 70 throws targeting him. According to NFL operations, no passer since 2002 had posted a perfect rating when targeting one receiver more than 15 times. Dallas primarily uses its cornerbacks in the same positions, with Byron Jones on the right, Anthony Brown in the slot and Chidobe Awuzie out left. Seattle moves Lockett inside and outside, and how Dallas defends him could be key to slowing Seattle’s big-play ability.
Chargers at Ravens
Los Angeles: Clogging lanes and us
ing spies: Since rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson became the starter, the Ravens have won six of seven games and averaged 229.6 rushing yards per game. Jackson can take off on designed runs but can also scramble when a play is about to break down, making Baltimore’s attack incredibly unpredictable. The Chargers might try to keep Jackson from breaking free by staying disciplined to clog potential rushing lanes and using a linebacker as a spy. Baltimore: Linebacker C.J. Mosley: Arguably the Ravens’ most important defender, Mosley makes the pre-snap adjustments and calls defensive plays. From his spot in the middle of the defense, he’s central in the effort to stop Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. Though Gordon has been dealing with injuries, he has excelled as a ballcarrier and pass catcher. But in Week 16’s Baltimore victory, Gordon tallied a season-low 54 yards from scrimmage in his first game back from a sprained MCL. One of the favorite moves for the running back and quarterback Philip Rivers is when Gordon acts as if he’ll be in pass protection only to shoot upfield and cut to either side for a pass. Mosley has to be ready for those plays or have someone else in position.
Eagles at Bears
Philadelphia: Offensive tackles Ja
son Peters and Lane Johnson: The Eagles have one of the league’s most formidable offensive lines but haven’t faced a test like Chicago. The Bears ranked third in the league with 50 sacks, two behind the Steelers and Chiefs. While Vic Fangio’s defense generates pressure from multiple points, the focus will be on Peters and Johnson to contain linebacker Khalil Mack. When he was with the Raiders, Mack mainly lined up on the left side of the defense, which would put more stress on the right tackle. But in Chicago, coordinator Vic Fangio has moved him all over, often dropping him into coverage to disguise pressure from elsewhere. When Mack comes off the edge, he’s a game changer.
Chicago: Defense in the red zone: In games Nick Foles has started this season, the Eagles have scored TDs on 68.8 percent of trips inside the 20 after posting a 53.7 percent rate when Carson Wentz led the team. Granted, a lot of that can be attributed to the teams Foles faced (Falcons, Buccaneers, Rams, Texans and Redskins), but Chicago will have to hold firm in the red zone. The Bears rank fifth in the NFL, allowing only half of opponents’ trips to end in touchdowns. Chicago also led the NFL in takeaways with 36.