Hall countdown: Gary Sheffield’s chances
USA TODAY is counting down the top 10 candidates on the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot in advance of the Jan. 22 election results.
The countdown is based on voting by our power rankings panel, which includes five Hall voters. No. 10 is Gary Sheffield.
His candidacy began when the Hall of Fame ballot mess was perhaps at its peak: an offense-heavy era skewing the numbers, a gaggle of players tied strongly or lightly to performance-enhancing drugs and a general glut of bold-faced names that made his accomplishments feel smaller.
Sheffield is still around, however, and as the ballot logjam eases and today’s game evolves, his Cooperstown chances only seem to grow.
The case for
He pairs his 509 home runs with a .907 OPS, equaling first-ballot Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Ken Griffey Jr. Sheffield was a gifted and diverse enough hitter that he produced a batting title (.330 in 1992), an OBP crown (.465) and three seasons of at least 39 homers.
Although his highest MVP finish came in 2004, when he was runner-up to Vladimir Guerrero in the American League race, Sheffield had six top-10 finishes and likely would have placed higher in some of those years were his seasons viewed through the modern statistical prism.
Intangibles? Sheffield certainly qualifies as one of the most feared hitters of his generation. And yes, the statistics show that fear was well-founded: Sheffield finished in the top five in Win Probability Added five times and ranks 19th all time in that category.
The case against
Certainly, Sheffield’s career numbers look gaudy, but the bulk of them came in one of baseball’s most hitting-charged eras.
His 509 home runs are just 16 more than that of Fred McGriff, whose career spanned virtually the same years as Sheffield; McGriff will likely fall well short of induction this year, his 10th and final on the ballot.
Sheffield also was tied to the game’s performance-enhancing drug scandal, when he admitted to a BALCO grand jury that he received substances from friend Barry Bonds during their offseason training sessions. Those substances were determined to be the “cream” and “clear” PEDs distributed by BALCO.
Whether Sheffield knowingly or unknowingly took PEDs, it’s hard to deny the substances did not positively impact his production, as he enjoyed three consecutive MVP-caliber campaigns in the years that followed, despite hitting his mid-30s.
X factors
What’s more important: Playing substandard defense, or not playing defense at all? It appears Sheffield’s contemporary, Edgar Martinez, will gain entry to the Hall in this, his final season of eligibility. That’s viewed as a landmark election for designated hitters.
Sheffield was never viewed as a great defender, but play the field, he did. Over 22 seasons, he logged significant time at shortstop, third base and both corner outfield positions. While never a great defender — he once led the National League with a staggering 10 errors as a left fielder — Sheffield certainly showed up for a full days’ work, not transitioning to DH duty until his age 38 and 39 seasons with Detroit before finishing in the NL with the Mets.
Consensus
Sheffield is creeping. He has never received more than 13 percent of votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America but could be among the beneficiaries of a slow loosening of the ballot logjam. Early returns from @NotMrTibbs’ ballot tracker indicate he’s picked up seven votes this season, which should at least enable him to match his 13 percent high-water mark.
But Sheffield figures to suffer once non-public ballots are added to the mix. The prognosis isn’t good as he heads toward the back nine of his ballot eligibility. But if there’s one thing Sheffield’s proved over his time in baseball, it’s that he has significant staying power.