The mid-majors that could topple giants
These teams could reach NCAA tournament, upset giants
Eight under-the-radar teams to watch out for in this year’s NCAA tournament
With small conference tournaments in full swing this week, teams will be securing automatic NCAA tournament bids as early as Saturday.
The recipe for a unlikely run in March Madness typically starts with winning the conference tournament. Maryland-Baltimore County upset Vermont in last year’s America East tournament before making history by knocking off No. 1 seed Virginia as a No. 16 seed.
And had Loyola-Chicago not taken care of business and won the Missouri Valley tournament last year, it’s questionable whether the eventual Final Four finisher would’ve even received an at-large bid by the NCAA selection committee.
While this year’s cast of mid-majors is much stronger than previous seasons — Wofford and Buffalo are both projected to notch No. 7 seeds — there will always be an unheralded double-digit seed that plays the role of giant killer in the NCAAs.
Here’s a look at the best bets to go on major upset runs for the 2019 NCAA tournament if they can fend off challengers in their conference tournaments this week.
Belmont (projected No. 11 seed): Coach Rick Byrd has had teams capable of going far in the NCAAs but never has a Belmont team been this well positioned for an at-large bid.
The Bruins (25-4) still face a tough Ohio Valley Conference tournament with a field that features fellow bubble team Murray State.
Belmont has a nice mix of senior veterans (Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain are the team’s leading scorers) and freshman newcomers. The Bruins have the nation’s second-best scoring offense at 88.3 points per game, so putting up points won’t be an issue in a first-round matchup against a No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
Lipscomb (projected No. 12 seed): The Bison (24-6) played Belmont close in two games, beat TCU and narrowly lost to Louisville, proving their ability against tough opponents. Lipscomb does a lot of things well, including ranking in the top 10 in assists per game. Senior guard Garrison Mathews carries the offensive load for this group, having averaged more than 20 points the past three seasons.
Furman (first four out as an atlarge): If the Paladins can’t get past Wofford, a team that hasn’t lost a league game all season, in the Southern Conference tournament, they then have to hope the selection committee rewards them for beating Villanova on the road and posting a NET ranking of 44. Senior forward Matt Rafferty leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals. He had 17 rebounds in that ’Nova upset in November.
Old Dominion (projected No. 13 seed): The Monarchs (23-6) knocked off Syracuse in non-conference action behind their dynamic senior backcourt of B.J. Stith (18.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Ahmad Caver (17.0 ppg, 5.4 apg). It starts on defense for coach Jeff Jones’ group, as ODU ranks in the top 10 in field-goal percentage defense (38.7 percent) and scoring defense (61.2 ppg). The Conference USA regular-season winner still must take care of business in a league tournament.
Vermont (projected No. 13 seed): If the Catamounts (24-6) can get past UMBC in this year’s America East tourney (the Retrievers beat them both times in the regular season). they have what it takes to pull off a first-round upset and even make it to the second weekend. Vermont is led by veteran Anthony Lamb, who averages 20.8 points and 8.0 rebounds. Senior guard Ernie Duncan (14.3 ppg) paces the backcourt.
Hofstra (projected No. 14 seed): The Pride (25-6) hung close with Maryland and Virginia Commonwealth on the road before claiming the Colonial regular-season title. There’s no shortage of experience on this team, with upperclassmen seeing most of the minutes. Justin Wright-Foreman (26.8 ppg) can take over a game. He had 48 points in a Feb. 9 win over William & Mary. But it’s not just him. The Pride shoot almost 50 percent from the field and are second nationally in team free throw percentage (79.8 percent).
South Dakota State (projected No. 14 seed): Mike Daum has been a household name in the past three NCAA tournaments, but the country’s most gifted mid-major big man (averaging 25.6 points and 11.7 rebounds this season) hasn’t translated into first-round upsets.
That could definitely change this season thanks to Daum’s help coming from the backcourt. The Jackrabbits (24-7) rank third nationally in three-point field goal percentage (41.4 percent) and rank fifth in scoring offense (85.2 ppg) thanks in part to sharpshooter David Jenkins, who had 10 three-pointers in a February game against Omaha and eight triples in two other non-league games.
Loyola-Chicago (projected No. 15 seed): It’s been a bumpy ride for the Ramblers (19-12) in their encore season after last year’s Final Four run. This is hardly the same team that shocked the tournament as a No. 11 seed. But there’s room for some first-round magic should Loyola win the Missouri Valley tournament as the No. 1 seed. Porter Moser’s team was 7-6 in non-conference games but still found a way to win a share of the league’s regular-season title. Last year’s top player, Clayton Custer, has slumped, but Marques Townes (15.9 ppg) has taken control as the lead catalyst, and big man Cameron Krutwig (14.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg) developed into a force inside as a sophomore.