Win-loss predictions
USA TODAY’s forecast of records for each team and division finishes
How we see the 2019 MLB season unfolding.
AL East
It’s just a light World Series hangover for the Red Sox but sufficient enough that the reloaded and terribly deep Yankees ease past them for the division title. Will it be an all-East wild-card game? Quite possibly, if the Rays’ revamped lineup platoons its way to enough runs in support of pitchers Blake Snell and The Openers. The Blue Jays might delay Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s arrival, but an ugly retooling year is almost inevitable. Can the Orioles avoid becoming the first team to lose 110 games in consecutive years? We say yes — barely.
AL Central
The year is 2050, and Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are still taking the ball for a 90-plus-win Indians team. Or at least it seems that way. No team might be more volatile than the Twins, who could push 90 wins and the Indians, or recede toward .500. We expect another big move from them before opening day. The White Sox are the best of the worst, buying some stability with veterans such as Ervin Santana, Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay — but no Machado. The Royals’ unique gambit, corner the market on speed, is fun and intriguing and might pay off, once there’s pitching to support it. The Tigers haven’t lost 100 since their epic 119-loss 2003 season. That might change.
AL West
The Astros kept it interesting last year, waiting until the third week of September to put away the division. Has anyone in the West closed the gap further? Probably not. The Athletics got frugally creative in piecing together a reputable pitching staff last season and winning 97 games. It’s a tough move to repeat — good luck, Marco Estrada — and our panel has them at anywhere from 82 to 90 wins. The Angels will be a chic sleeper pick and a legit threat if their pitching can, for once, stay healthy. The Mariners and Rangers are in various stages of retreat but might win more games than anticipated given the amount of veteran talent on both squads.
NL East
Welcome to hell. Not only will this be a four-team fight, but every squad has a significant emotional investment. The Nationals, eager to prove they can win without Harper. The Phillies, to justify their $330 million investment along with other dizzying win-now moves. The Braves, to prove they’re not a fluke, and the Mets, to show that their rockstar GM can flourish even under the shackles of the Wilpon regime. For now, grab your popcorn and dream on a Max Scherzer-Aaron Nola one-game playoff for the division title. (And then there’s the Marlins. Sigh.)
NL Central
Baseball’s other high-stakes division, where someone is going to finish fourth and be very upset about it. For now, we see it as you probably do: a three-way shootout between the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers. The margin figures to be so thin that the losers should experience significant regret they didn’t do more this offseason. Regret doesn’t seem to exist in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates continued their 20-year streak of not committing so much as $60 million to one player. The Reds should break a string of four 90-loss seasons; Alex Wood and Tanner Roark make them better and Yasiel Puig makes them fun, but it’s a tough year to climb uphill in this division.
NL West
This division nearly nailed the Machado-Harper exacta. Alas, the Dodgers should easily run their streak of division titles to seven even without a new superstar. A pitching rotation 10 deep in useful arms — keep an eye on Julio Urias this year — should have them coasting to the postseason. The Dodgers will get a decent fight from the Rockies, who could probably use another bullpen arm after the defection of Adam Ottavino. The Diamondbacks haven’t yet traded Zack Greinke and thus should have a passable product even in the post-Paul Goldschmidt era. Machado’s Padres will be mere spoilers this season, but if Chris Paddack and other young pitchers seize the day, they could come quicker than we imagine. Amid a rocky spring that’s included a high-profile Harper chase and an ugly domestic incident involving CEO Larry Baer, here’s hoping the Giants can produce a placid farewell season for manager Bruce Bochy.