Rossi and Dixon lead fierce IndyCar field
Even by his legendary standards, Scott Dixon uncorked a year for the ages in 2018. In 17 starts, Dixon finished outside the top 10 only twice — an 11th-place run at Long Beach and a 12th at Iowa. That’s it. Those were his “bad days.” The rest of the year was filled with top-six finishes. Dixon recorded an unfathomable 15 top-sixes, including three wins and six more podiums. His average finishing position for the season was 4.2, the best in a decade (2008 Helio Castroneves, 4.0). That’s how you win a championship. Actually, that’s how you win your fifth.
“That’s just what he does,” 2018 runner-up Alexander Rossi said. “He’s one of the best who’s ever done it.”
Rossi says he learned a lot from finishing behind Dixon and he’s ready to put those lessons to work. He’ll need to. In fact, he’ll need to be nearly flawless if he’s going to take down the reigning champ. Rossi, along with every other championship hopeful, knows that come the finale at Laguna Seca, Dixon will be in the hunt. At 38 years old, he remains at the peak of his powers. And until the day he begins to show chinks in the armor, the championship goes through him. How I see this year’s championship chase shaking out:
1. Alexander Rossi, Andretti Autosport: If there was one club missing from Rossi’s bag last year it was knowing when good was good enough. On the rarest of occasions, he pushed a little too much, and, as he learned the hard way, even the tiniest of slip-ups is all Dixon needs to take advantage. Rossi vows he’s learned from the missteps and is ready to make the leap to IndyCar champion in just his fourth season.
2. Will Power, Team Penske: There’s a case to case to be made that had the Indianapolis 500 winner not endured some of the worst luck of his racing career last year — four DNFs along with some other bad breaks — he’d have won the second title of his career. Despite the misfortune, he still managed to finish third in the championship, largely because his averaging finishing position in the 13 races he completed was 4.07, a shade better than Dixon’s 4.2. Like Dixon, Power remains at his peak. Barring another hailstorm of rotten luck, the greatest qualifier of his generation (54 poles) will be in the title hunt all season as he continues to chase down Mario Andretti’s pole record (67).
3. Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing: Just how consistently dominant has Dixon been throughout his career? I’m predicting him to finish third in the championship — that would be tied for his second-worst finish since 2007. Incredible. Dixon could walk away tomorrow and go down as one of the greatest IndyCar drivers who ever lived. However, much to the dismay of the paddock, he’s isn’t going anywhere. So what’s left for him to accomplish? He could give you a whole list but tops among them: He’s two titles away from tying the legend A.J. Foyt, and while he’s won five, he’s never gone back-to-back. He’s determined to amend that this year.
4. Josef Newgarden, Team Penske: From Toronto 2017 to Phoenix last year, Newgarden was on a blistering run the likes of which IndyCar hadn’t seen for years. He won at a 50 percent clip over those 10 races. Of course, the torrid stretch had to end sometime, and when it did, it hit hard. He recorded only one more podium after his win at Barber and his quest to “Defend the 1” came to an end. However, few team-driver combinations are even capable of such runs. If Newgarden can rediscover the magic he conjured during those 10 races, he’ll be well on his way to a second title.
5. Ryan Hunter-Reay, Andretti Autosport: Last year was a return to form for Hunter-Reay, who picked up his first two wins (Detroit, Sonoma) since 2015 and his first top-five championship finish (fourth) since his title-winning season of 2012. What ultimately kept Hunter-Reay from becoming a bigger factor in the championship were three DNFs. If he and the No. 28 DHL team can eliminate those, he has a chance to become just the 20th driver in IndyCar history to win multiple championships and a 500.
6. Simon Pagenaud, Team Penske: It took Pagenaud most of the year to find his bearings on road and street circuits, but he seemed to get into a groove late in the season. If he can repeat that success early this year, this prediction is going to look foolish. And keep in mind: The last time Pagenaud went winless in a Penske car, he rebounded the following season with five victories and a championship.
7. James Hinchcliffe, Arrow Schmidt Peterson Motorsport: Between Robert Wickens’ star turn and his own Bump Day disaster, some might have forgotten that after the first five races of the 2018 season, Hinchcliffe was sitting in fifth place and within 34 points of the championship lead after five top-10 finishes in a row. If the newly minted Arrow SPM team can deliver that type of consistency throughout the entire season, Hinchcliffe has a great chance of beating his career-best championship finish (eighth).
8. Felix Rosenqvist, Chip Ganassi Racing: There’s a lot of hype building around this 27-year-old Swedish starin-the-making. The comparisons to Wickens — the 2018 Indianapolis 500 winner and season rookie of the year — have been thrown about by many of the series’ top drivers. Power even listed Rosenqvist as a dark-horse title contender. That’s a tall order for the rookie, but there’s no question he has the talent and team to make it happen.
9. Sebastien Bourdais, Dale Coyne Racing with Vasser-Sullivan: Bourdais remains one of the most supremely talented drivers in the paddock. The fourtime CART champion is one of only three drivers to have racked up victories in each of the past five seasons (Dixon, Power). However, consistency has eluded Bourdais at DCRVS. At times, he and his team enjoy weekends when they can go toe-to-toe with the series’ elite. But on other occasions, they find themselves trying to make up too much ground come race day.
10. Zach Veach, Andretti Autosport: This is based on two factors: Andretti’s team-wide surge up the championship standings last year and Veach’s stellar second half. From Toronto to Gateway, Veach racked up four top-10s in a row. With a year of experience under his belt, look for the young driver to start making top-10s a regular occurrence.
Jim Ayello
The Indianapolis Star | USA TODAY Network