Beware New Mexico State, Iowa State in early rounds
USA TODAY breaks down the NCAA Midwest Regional.
Best first-round matchup: Wofford-Seton Hall. The selection committee rewarded No. 7 Wofford for a terrific season with a very nice seed. Now, can the Terriers capitalize against a more athletic first-round opponent? Wofford is fueled by 3-pointers — they rank No. 2 nationally, hitting 41.6 percent — which make the Terriers extremely dangerous. Meanwhile, led by Myles Powell, Seton Hall has been erratic, which is why it fell onto the bubble in the final weeks. But the Pirates beat Kentucky and went 3-1 against Big East rivals Marquette and Villanova. Key for the Pirates could be getting help for Powell.
Potential upset: It’s never a bad idea to pick a No. 12 to beat a 5, and New Mexico State fits the bill as a dangerous No. 12. The Aggies, who won the WAC’s regular-season and tournament championships, have won 19 consecutive games; they do it with defense and rebounding and a big dose of 3-pointers. Although Trevelyn Queen scored 27 points in the WAC tournament final against Grand Canyon, no player averages as many as 12 points. Included on their resume is a near upset of Kansas. After a midseason swoon, Auburn got hot late and played very well in winning the SEC tournament — a 20-point victory against Tennessee in the final — and led by Jared Harper, they force turnovers and score in transition. But the Tigers’ reliance on the 3-pointer can be problematic. This could come down to which team is hot from deep.
The sleeper: Iowa State is as hard to decipher as any team in the country. The Cyclones are very talented — with a bevy of potent scorers led by guard Marial Shayok, they might be the Big 12 team with the highest ceiling — but their defense rarely matched the offense. They lost six of their last eight regularseason games but then won the Big 12 tournament. For a glimpse of what’s possible, look no further than the way Iowa State dominated Kansas in the championship game. If the Cyclones can replicate that performance, they could play deep into the bracket.
The winner: North Carolina. It’s tempting to take Kentucky, which morphed (like so many of John Calipari’s teams) into something very formidable by the end of the season. But the Tar Heels were this close to beating Duke three times — the last time, in the ACC tournament, with Duke at full strength, Zion Williamson in full effect. North Carolina prefers a fast pace and, with freshman guard Coby White as the catalyst, has the athletes to run away from most opponents. But the Heels can slow down, play physical and win that way, too. No one would be surprised if North Carolina won the national championship — or at least met Duke again, this time for the ultimate prize.