Weather might create clear distance bias at Augusta

AUGUSTA, Ga. – Will the 2019 Masters turn into a carry contest? While this mentally taxing layout will always reward a mix of skills, the heightened strategic intricacies that exposes inexperienced players might be minimized by nearly three inches of rain hitting the already soft Augusta National.

“Hopefully being a long hitter will be helpful,” Justin Thomas said.

Add to the mix a fifth hole lengthened by 40 yards, with a 314-yard carry needed to clear fairway bunkers, and carry might be a premium asset this week.

“You need to hit driver,” Rory McIlroy said of the fifth hole. He’s second on the PGA Tour in driving distance and golf’s most notorious “mudder,” winning his four majors on rain-softened courses.

Phil Mickelson, 22nd on the PGA Tour this year in carry distance, is chasing speed due to the conditions.

“All I wanted to do today was just speed it up,” he said of his practice session Tuesday. “I anticipate it being warm. I anticipate distance being a big factor, and if it rains, distance will be an even bigger factor, so I want to make sure my speed is up.”

While Tiger Woods did not address whether a bias will develop due to the rains, he thinks the new fifth is actually too long for some conditions. “It’s soft,” he said. “The fairways aren’t going to give it up. If that’s the case, I don’t know if we’re going to play it 495 every day.”

Recent contenders here were a little less sure that Augusta National will turn into a bomber’s paradise as the weather warms up and the ball runs even less than normal on the fairways cut with a light grain toward the tees.

“If you play good, you’re going to shoot a good score, whether it’s firm and fast or if it’s soft,” Dustin Johnson said. “Obviously when it’s really firm and fast and there’s some wind, it makes it very difficult. But you know, because the greens get very tricky.

“When they are a little softer, you have longer clubs in, but you can hold the greens a little bit easier. It’s a fine line of if it’s real soft, it’s still going to play fairly difficult because it’s so long.”

Johnson, 10th with a 297.9 carry average this season, will be fine no matter the bias.

Jordan Spieth agreed that strategy is diminished with softer conditions but thinks things have a way of balancing out at Augusta National.

“I’ve played it soft, and that was the year I won; it was pretty soft in, I want to say, 2016, it was pretty soft, as well,” he said. “Then 2014, I remember being really firm, and then I think 2017 was on the firmer side, too.”

Feeling better about his driving after rising from 114th in carry distance to 82nd after his play in San Antonio, Spieth suggested there is only one bias no matter how much it rains.

“I think either way, you just have to step up and play some really good golf.”

“If you play good, you’re going to shoot a good score, whether it’s firm and fast or if it’s soft.”