Caution signs on No. 1 NBA pick
Wolken: Zion top prospect but with X factors
Whichever franchise watched their ping-pong balls land the right way Tuesday at the NBA’s draft lottery will undoubtedly have reason to celebrate. Not only will that team have overcome pretty significant odds in a new lottery system the NBA designed to discourage tanking, it will have gotten lucky in a draft where there’s only one true object of everyone’s affection.
Based on everything we saw in 33 games at Duke, it’s more likely than not that Zion Williamson is worthy of being called the most exciting prospect to enter the NBA since Anthony Davis in 2012.
But for a handful of franchises that might land at No. 1, it’s worth a long look at whether they should try to turn that pick into Davis. And not just the Lakers, who have a scant 2% chance at moving up to No. 1. Even the Suns, Knicks and perhaps the Hawks should seriously consider whether it might be worth flipping Williamson for someone already in that category.
Williamson should one day be a perennial All-Star, has a legitimate chance to be a top-five player and, if everything goes right, could perhaps be the best player in the league at some point.
However, there’s been very little conversation about what could go wrong with Williamson.
In the span of 11 days in March during the Atlantic Coast Conference and NCAA tournaments, I watched Williamson up close on five occasions. The number of times he made a play that inspired me to jump out of my seat was probably several dozen. I came away from that experience concluding that in nearly 20 years of covering college sports I hadn’t seen a player who made a bigger impact on both ends of the floor than Williamson.
If you are convinced Williamson is going to have that same impact at the next level, you shouldn’t trade him for three Anthony Davises. But it’s not crazy to wonder if he’ll top out as an AllStar-level talent who isn’t going to be the best player on a championship team.
Based on multiple conversations with NBA scouts and college coaches who saw Williamson up close this season, there are three primary areas where Williamson’s pro career could go wrong. (Wrong in this context means he’s not a top-10 or top-15 player in the NBA.)
1. What position does he play?
Even in this era of position-less basketball and small lineups, Williamson is going to be an interesting fit on an NBA floor. Although his athleticism and jumping ability will allow him to play taller than he is, he’s going to have to function mostly in the post at 6-7, likely at power forward or sometimes at center.
Williamson’s go-to move in college was the power dribble/spin from the block or the high post. Will that type of bully-ball work in the NBA against athletic 7-footers who can withstand his physical strength? Not so much.
Ultimately, for Williamson to be an elite offensive player in the NBA, he’s going to have to expand his game. Though he possesses an incredible level of skill — just look at some of the transition bounce passes he made at Duke — his jump shot isn’t a thing of beauty, and he shot 64% on free throws. Williamson made 34% of his 3-pointers in college, so perhaps he’ll improve as a shooter. But it’s not the most natural part of the game for him, and if he can’t stretch out to the 3-point line as an undersized power forward or center, it will be difficult for him to reach true superstar status.
LeBron James wasn’t a great shooter when he came into the NBA, but he was also more or less playing point guard. That’s not going to be Williamson’s role, so he’ll need to be able to stroke it from the mid-range and deeper.
2. Could he get too heavy?
Williamson enters the NBA with an unusual physique. At 285 pounds, his listed weight at Duke, he’d already be the second-heaviest player in the league. Though his muscle mass and strength account for most of that weight, the question of whether he should slim down for the 82-game grind of an NBA season will be a crucial one for the franchise that drafts him.
It’s a bit of a double-edged sword in projecting him. Perhaps once Williamson gets in a year-round, professional strength and conditioning program along with a full-time nutritionist, he’ll be able to get a little leaner and take his game to another level. On the other hand, players who have a natural propensity to put on weight can be dangerous as they get older.
It’s not a stretch to project a scenario in which Williamson plays much of his career a little heavier than what he should be, which could limit his ability to switch and guard perimeter players, not to mention the long-term impact on his joints and knees.
3. Will he maintain his effort level?
A huge part of Williamson’s appeal, as well as his effectiveness as a player, is that he tries so damn hard all of the time. He’ll make the second jump for a rebound, the extra effort to dive for a loose ball, the all-out defensive gamble that could result in a steal-and-slam.
Williamson’s effort level is a skill that will undoubtedly translate to the NBA, but how much and at what cost?
An 82-game season plus a long postseason is a different grind than a short college spring. Playing harder than your opponent can get you a few more regular-season wins, but in the playoffs the effort gap gets erased. You have to just be better.
Moreover, great players know when to take risks and when to preserve their bodies. Fans sometimes hate to hear this, but it’s simply true that diving full speed out of bounds to save a loose ball in the third quarter of a Tuesday night game in New Orleans might not be the smartest move. Can Williamson back off the throttle just a little bit and be as effective?
These are all legitimate issues that front office officials could look at and have some skepticism about whether Williamson is the kind of once-in-adecade player who many basketball fans now view him as being.
But without a serious alternative to supplant him as the No. 1 pick, his value as a trade chip could be off the charts, particularly with a New Orleans team that would clearly try for the best combination of assets it can get in a Davis trade.
Sure, it would be a major risk to trade him for Davis, especially without a commitment that he would sign a long-term extension going into the last year of his contract.
But if you’re New York and really believe you can get Kyrie Irving and/or Kevin Durant in free agency, suddenly you’re in a win-now mode where Williamson might not make sense.
Or if you’re Phoenix, a team that hasn’t progressed despite a series of lottery picks, maybe you look at pairing Davis and Devin Booker as the foundation of a team that could quickly rise in the Western Conference.
Or even if you’re Atlanta, which seems to have an exciting young core, is there an appeal to pairing Davis with John Collins in an elite frontcourt alongside Trae Young?
Obviously, the team that wins Tuesday’s lottery will justifiably be euphoric. But even with a prospect like Williamson available, getting the No. 1 pick this time will come with an array of options that could shape their teams for years to come.