Calif. insists on political relevance
Blue state shoulders its way into early primaries
SAN FRANCISCO – California is no longer a political afterthought.
The solidly blue state hasn’t voted for a Republican president in a general election since George H.W. Bush won here more than 30 years ago. For the past several elections, nominating contests in the Golden State have been dull races.
After state Democrats decided to move up their primary from early June to March 3 – the “Super Tuesday” Election Day when voters in 12 other states and Democrats living abroad also cast their ballots – California is enjoying its moment as an electoral belle of the ball.
“By moving to March, we’ve made California not just more relevant but extremely relevant,” California Secretary of State Alex Padilla told USA TODAY as the party faithful gathered at this weekend’s California Democratic Party Convention. “That’s translated into candidates not just coming here to raise money. They are actually coming to talk to California voters.”
Indeed, more than half of the nearly two dozen 2020 Democratic presidential contenders traveled to California over the weekend to court liberal activists and party establishment at the convention and other forums sponsored by left-leaning groups and unions.
That flood of attention by White House hopefuls is good news for California Democrats, who have watched Democratic candidates swoop into the state for big-dollar fundraisers in Silicon Valley and Hollywood while putting minimum effort into voter outreach.
California’s new standing could shake up how campaigns strategize where they spend their time and dollars, political analysts say. For the first time, Californians and voters in Texas, the nation’s second most populous state, will hold their primaries on the same day.
“California moving to the front of the pack rather than where it used to be will have a big effect on how candidates campaign,” said James Demers, a Democratic strategist in New Hampshire. “You have to compete first in the early states, but you also have to have this time around some significant resources in California and in Texas.”
California Assemblywoman Buffy Wicks said the state’s move means candidates can survive the first four races without necessarily notching a victory. Wicks was a key adviser to Barack Obama’s two White House runs and advises Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif.
“You still have to do well in the first four, but I don’t think it’s going to be disqualifying if you don’t win,” Wicks said.
With mail-in voting provisions, California voters can begin casting their ballots Feb. 3, the same day as Iowa’s firstin-the-nation caucuses. Sixty-five percent of Californians cast early ballots in the 2018 midterms.
Why the early states matter
The earliest voting states, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire, have served as equalizers. Shoe-leather politics and relatively inexpensive television and radio advertising made them territory where an underdog candidate could stand on nearly even ground with deep-pocketed rivals.
Voters in more populous states have long complained about Iowa and New Hampshire’s elevated status, noting the states are hardly reflective of the nation’s diversity. The states’ populations have been historically less ethnically diverse, have lower unemployment and have more married-couple households than the rest of the country.
Similar arguments could be made that California is further to the left of the rest of the country on immigration, climate and cultural issues.
Some voters suggested that the state is, in fact, a leader.
“The rest of the country really looks to California for what a progressive state can be,” said Maricela Gutierrez, director of a San Jose agency that works with immigrants.
Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Iowa, said California’s move could create a dynamic in which earlier voting states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will “tee up the nomination” and give California – which sent 475 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in 2016 – a chance “to hit it out of the park.”
“What states have done for years in an attempt to mitigate the impact of the caucuses is to move their primaries forward,” Goldford said. “The irony of that is it doesn’t mitigate the impact of the caucuses, it amplifies the caucuses. When states follow really quickly on Iowa, what it does is shield ‘winners’ … from in-depth and extensive examination, and it hurts losers because they have less time to recover from a poor showing.”
Dan Schnur, who served as communication director for California Gov. Pete Wilson and John McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign, said he doubts California will become a hot race. The state, which has nearly 40 million residents and three of the nation’s biggest media markets, will make it prohibitively expensive for all but a few candidates.
And California is not a winner-takeall primary, meaning that delegates are apportioned based on the percentage of the vote they received.
“This move did not make California a 900-pound gorilla in the nominating process,” Schnur said.
Candidates make their pitches
This cattle call centered on the state convention, where 3,400 state delegates elected Los Angeles labor leader Rusty Hicks as the California Democratic Party’s next leader. The election for a new leader came after party chairman Eric Bauman resigned in November, weeks after facing allegations he drank on the job and sexually harassed and abused staff.
The controversy was overshadowed by the wall of presidential candidates trying to woo Californians.
Eleven White House hopefuls addressed the convention Saturday and three more were set for Sunday. Four candidates – Sen. Bernie Sanders and Harris, former Housing and Urban Development Director Julian Castro and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee – stopped in Pasadena on Friday to lay out their vision to immigration activists.
Six candidates – Gov. Jay Inslee, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Harris and Sanders – made five-minute pitches to union workers at a Service Employees International Union breakfast meeting Saturday. Eight candidates – Sen. Cory Booker, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand – addressed the liberal group MoveOn. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper planned to attend services Sunday in Oakland at a predominantly African American church.
Padilla, California’ secretary of state, said there are signs that the move to push ahead the state primary is generating excitement among California. More than 20 million people in the state are registered to vote, the majority of which are Democrats or not party-affiliated, he said.
“We are seeing a new energy,” Padilla said.
Where’s Joe Biden?
Absent was former Vice President Joe Biden, who early polls show is in the lead nationally and in California.
But even Biden, who was in Columbus, Ohio, Saturday to deliver a speech to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Stonewall Riots, has thrown early attention to California. He faced criticism from some delegates and elected officials for skipping the convention.
Jamal Brown, a national spokesman for Biden, said senior campaign aides were sent to the California convention to discuss the former vice president’s bid with delegates and other participants. “In the coming weeks, Vice President Biden is looking forward to returning to California to meet with voters, learn firsthand about their concerns and ultimately compete strongly in the state,” Brown said.
Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker, the acting California Democratic Party chairwoman, said Biden called her Wednesday to express his regrets. She said she told Biden she hoped to “see him in November” when the state party holds a candidates forum.
“He said, ‘Oh no, we’ll see you a lot before November,’ ” she said.