Diamondbacks loaded with draft picks
PHOENIX – If they were ping-pong balls bouncing around in a cage like the NBA lottery system, the Diamondbacks would feel a whole lot more confident Monday.
If this were the NFL draft, simply deciding between a quarterback or a defensive lineman, no sweat.
But this is baseball.
The Diamondbacks might have a league-high eight picks among the first 93 selections in the amateur draft beginning Monday, including four of the top 34. They have $16.09 million to spend in the draft pool, $3 million more than any other team in baseball.
Yet unless at least two or three of those picks have a future impact, their draft will be as meaningful as a losing 50-50 raffle ticket.
The Diamondbacks’ first selection will be with the 16th overall pick.
The last time they had the 16th pick, they chose third baseman Bobby Borchering. He never made it past Class AA.
Mike Trout was drafted nine picks later by the Angels.
“The draft is very risky,” Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen says. “It has always been risky. There are things you don’t know about that you’re going to find about after you take the players. This isn’t the NBA or NFL.”
Simply, no guarantees. There are no Mike Trouts in this year’s draft. Or Bryce Harpers. Or Stephen Strasburgs.
General managers, scouting directors and scouts who have canvassed the country for the past 12 months will tell you the 60th pick in the draft has a chance to be a better player than a top-5 pick. There is absolutely no consensus among the top 10 picks.
“That seems to be pretty fair,” Hazen says. “I think we’re narrowing down for our first pick, but after that, you just never know. There are big-leaguers all over the draft. We just got to find them.”
The last time a team had this many top picks in the draft were the Rays when they had 10 of the top 60 picks in 2011.
Blake Snell, who won the 2018 American League Cy Young Award, turned out to be the only impact player they drafted.
The Diamondbacks, who sent out about 30 scouts and front office executives to scout amateurs the past few months, realize they can ill afford major blunders. Team president Derrick Hall calls it the most important draft for the franchise since his arrival in 2005.
“I would say so because of the magnitude of the bulk of top 100 picks,” Hall said. “We have had some big years, such as the No. 1 overall in 2005 when we selected Justin Upton and the No. 3 and No. 7 picks in 2011 when we chose Trevor Bauer and Archie Bradley.
“The impact that this many quality picks can have on a system is exciting. Now we have to get them right.”
The Diamondbacks, who were just two games out of first place in the National League West three weeks ago, have nosedived out of contention by losing 17 of their last 26 games through Saturday. They entered Sunday with a 29-30 record, 11 games behind the runaway Dodgers.
Yet while teams might be prepared to start making offers to the Diamdonbacks for starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray and closer Greg Holland, Hazen says they are not open for business. Certainly not yet. Maybe not at all this year.
Let’s face it, no one is going to stop the Dodgers, least of all the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are going to win their seventh consecutive division title with perhaps their best chance to win their first World Series title since 1988.
Still, the last Hazen checked, there are two wild-card teams from each league that qualify for the postseason. And the Diamondbacks are only 21⁄2 games out of an NL wild-card berth, with nine teams within four games.
You certainly don’t go all-in just for a wild-card berth. The risk is too great. The Diamondbacks were in position to win the NL West last year but still played it cautiously. If they had emptied their farm system for Manny Machado and still missed the playoffs, Hazen says, it would have set the Diamondbacks franchise back years.
“The way the division is setting up is not favorable for us right now,” Hazen said. “But I think the opportunity of going for a playoff spot is going for a playoff spot.
“The only time that mindset shifts, I think, is that if you’re up by 10 games in the division at the trade deadline.”
In other words, there’s no need for the Dodgers, the Twins (AL Central) or the Astros (AL
West) to go crazy at the trade deadline. They’re in. They need to only concern themselves about October playoff games, not pieces to get them there.
So with a team that’s outscored their opponents by 42 runs this season and having lost a major league-leading 16 one-run games, Hazen says it’s premature to pull the plug and call it a season. The Diamondbacks still are hopeful that Luke Weaver doesn’t need Tommy John surgery, that Taijuan Walker can return in September from the same surgery and that infielder Jake Lamb and outfielder David Peralta will soon be back.
“I’m hoping we can stay in it and we can turn this around,” Hazen says. “Let’s see what happens. We’ve got to start flipping the script and see where that takes us.
“If we don’t, we’ll be having a different conversation.”
Check back with the Diamondbacks a month from now. If they fall out of the wild-card race, they’ll have two of the top trade commodities with Greinke and Holland at their disposal, and perhaps outfielders Adam Jones and Peralta, too.
For now, the next 72 hours are all about the future: the MLB draft.
If the Diamondbacks are ever going to run down the Dodgers one day, it starts right here.
“Teams like the Cubs, Astros, Rays and Twins have shown the importance of quality drafts and trades,” Hall said, “and just how quickly players can move through the system to the big leagues.”
There will be mistakes made along the way, like when the Astros drafted pitcher Mark Appel No. 1 overall instead of eventual MVP Kris Bryant in 2013 — and then Brady AIken with the first selection in 2014 — but the Diamondbacks can only hope they’re kept to a minimum. And there will be plenty of injuries along the way, with 66 pitchers selected in the first round in the last 10 drafts having Tommy John surgery, according to the Hardball Times.
“This is a pretty important draft for us,” Hazen says. “These guys are all important to what we’re trying to build. Having these many picks will be critical for us to infuse the talent within the system underneath.
“Our scouts have been out all year knowing this was going to be a pretty important draft for us.”
Hazen pauses, exhales and says, “One that we’re going to have to do right.”