Handicapping Belmont Stakes: Tacitus the worthy favorite
The wild circumstances that led to Country House winning the Kentucky Derby via disqualification overshadowed the impressive efforts of trainer Bill Mott’s other horse in that race.
No. 10 Tacitus (9-5 odds) returns as a worthy morning-line favorite in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes after rallying from well back in the Kentucky Derby to finish third (after Maximum Security was taken down). It takes a determined horse to withstand that type of crowded field and wet surface, find space wide and keep coming the way that Tacitus did that day. “Good courage” was the race comment in his past performances.
It wasn’t the first time Tacitus had shown his toughness. He was jostled around early in the Wood Memorial and rallied to win. He was on a speed-favoring track in the Tampa Bay Derby and rallied to win there, too. His reputation is that of a closer, but he has shown speed earlier at times.
This might have had something to do with why jockey Jose Ortiz selected Tacitus for the Kentucky Derby over Improbable, the horse that ended up the post-time favorite. And with Ortiz back, it figures to make Tacitus a tough out at 11⁄2 miles.
The Preakness Stakes victory couldn’t have been much more impressive for No. 9 War of Will (2-1), who is set to be the only horse in 2019 to run in all three Triple Crown races, perhaps winning two of them after his famously troubled Kentucky Derby trip.
The field looks a bit more formidable at Belmont than it did at Pimlico, but the Preakness had several strong early runners. This race sets up to be tilted more toward late runners. It speaks to War of Will’s proven versatility, however, that you could see him excelling in a fast or slow pace. That’s not the case for most horses in this field and most horses, period.
Tacitus and War of Will are favored well ahead of the other eight in the Belmont Stakes, and rightfully so. It will likely stay that way until post time.
Legit long shots
If there’s an under-the-radar deep closer to benefit the most from the added distance of the Belmont Stakes, it might be No. 7 Sir Winston (12-1). He came flying from the back of the pack in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 11 with jockey Joel Rosario, nearly running down the winner and beating No. 8 Intrepid Heart (10-1), who was a heavy favorite in that race.
Sir Winston has been dangerous with a fast pace in front of him, and closers weren’t far off late in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. It also helps a tremendous amount that Rosario is back aboard.
Meanwhile, Intrepid Heart makes an intriguing addition to the Triple Crown picture for three-time Belmont Stakes winner Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. A $750,000 purchase, this colt is dripping with pedigree and potential. He won his debut by almost 8 lengths. He has run only three times, however, and was third of five horses in that Peter Pan Stakes, his only stakes race.
Speaking of Pletcher horses, I ended up feeling silly for touting No. 6 Spinoff (15-1) before the Kentucky Derby. He finished 18th. He was an improving — albeit lightly raced — horse prior to that race, however, that had shown both early speed and a late kick at times.
The Kentucky Derby was the first time running on a wet surface for No. 4 Tax (15-1), and it didn’t go well. He finished 15th. It’s probably fair to draw a line through that race, especially since this is basically a home track for him and he has jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for this race (Belmont winner with Creator in 2016). But that was also his first try in a Grade 1 race and he has lost ground late at shorter distances, including a head-tohead loss to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial despite Tacitus having a rougher trip and covering more ground.
The others
Rosario had a ton of horse left when No. 2 Everfast (12-1) came from well off the pace for Dale Romans to finish a fastclosing second to War of Will in the Preakness, doing so at odds of 29-1. Such a result was certainly against form. He had finished at least 10 lengths back in his three previous races and has won only once in 11 starts.
It’s interesting to note that Rosario switched over to Sir Winston for this race despite that second-place finish in the Preakness. Rosario’s replacement is Luis Saez, who of course was the Kentucky Derby jockey for Maximum Security.
No. 5 Bourbon War (12-1) was bet down to 5-1 odds in the Preakness and just didn’t run well, finishing eighth. He can’t be completely discounted, as he has shown the ability to be dangerous late.
The effort from Japanesebred No. 3 Master Fencer (8-1) might have been the most shocking of any in the Derby. He rallied inside from the back of the pack and finished seventh, which was far better than expected. It’s just hard to expect a repeat performance.
And No. 1 Joevia (30-1) is likely to show speed and set the pace early on the rail. But his best strategy for actually winning the race might be to pray for rain. He is 2-for-2 on a sloppy surface and 0-for-3 otherwise.