Mets’ stunning trade a stroke of genius
You can mock him or praise him. Belittle him or commend him. But you sure as heck can’t ignore the man.
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen woke up this sleepy trade deadline with a thunderbolt Sunday afternoon, acquiring Blue Jays ace Marcus Stroman for New York’s top two pitching prospects.
He celebrated his ninth month on the job Monday, and he already has traded three first-round draft picks and a second-round pick, the latest being Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson – their fourth- and sixth-ranked prospects, according to MLB.com. Initial reaction: Love it.
As one National League executive said: “What a steal by the Mets. Unreal!’’
The Mets just acquired a guy who has the fifth-best ERA in the American League (2.96) despite pitching in the AL East and is yielding just 0.7 homers per nine innings in a year when they are using superballs instead of baseballs.
Sure, maybe one of the two prospects turns out to be a front-line pitcher in the major leagues and a perennial All-Star. Maybe they live up to their hype after being top draft picks. Then again, maybe neither ever has an impact and they’re shipped out to other teams in the next few years.
In a study by Baseball America, 20.1% of the prospects traded at the July 31 deadline since 2003 played at least two years in the majors and had a positive career Wins Above Replacement.
Yet these days most teams are terrified of trading prospects and the scrutiny it brings. They don’t want to take the gamble.
Really, when you think about it, the move is a stroke of genius.
The Mets have cornered the market on starting pitching, letting teams know that if they want Noah Syndergaard or pending free agent Zack Wheeler, they have to pay the price.
If no one is willing to give them the haul they want, the Mets will simply keep them all, let it play out over the winter, or even hang on to everyone until next year’s trade deadline.
The Mets not only have the best starters available now but also this winter. The free agent market is painfully thin after Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner and Wheeler.
While it makes much more sense for the Mets to unload Wheeler now since he’s a free agent in November, several rival teams believe New York’s front office and ownership no longer want Syndergaard, saying there’s a tone of desperation in the trade talks. The Mets deny the urgency. Privately, they say it’s 5050 whether Syndergaard is dealt.
They’ve had extensive trade talks with the Padres about their position players, but San Diego officials privately say the demands are far too exorbitant and they are becoming pessimistic about a potential deal.
The Mets have had cursory talks with the Twins that went nowhere, and they’re having dialogue with the Astros and the Braves.
It’ll be fascinating to see what the Mets pull off by the 4 p.m. ET Wednesday deadline. But after this trade, it would be easier to predict Trevor Bauer’s next act than Van Wagenen’s next move.