Zeke’s quest for big money hurt by market
It’s fair to wonder what the Cowboys’ fresh signing of linebacker Jaylon Smith to an eye-popping contract extension means for Ezekiel Elliott.
Elliott, arguably the Cowboys’ best player and reigning NFL rushing champ, is training with Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk at an exotic resort in Cabo San Lucas while his holdout approaches the one-month marker with apparently little movement in contract negotiations.
Smith, one of the most inspiring comeback stories in the entire NFL after rebounding from a career-threatening knee injury, is suddenly the league’s third highest-paid inside linebacker. The 6-year, $68.4 million deal he signed on Tuesday guarantees $35.4 million and averages $11.4 million, nearly twice the average on the existing contract that Elliott is trying to replace.
Funny, how the money can flow in the NFL.
The Cowboys have been engaged for months in stagnant extension talks with Elliott, Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Smith’s deal, though, came together in a matter of days.
How should Elliott take that? “It’s a zero-sum game,” Stephen Jones, Dallas’ executive vice president, told USA TODAY Sports this weekend. “There’s only so many dollars you’re working with. But we still feel very optimistic that we can do these three deals and they can end up like Jaylon – very happy to be here for a long time.”
Of course, there’s a counter-message from the Elliott camp as it looks to reportedly reset the running back market and is perhaps still seething over the tongue-in-cheek, “Zeke who?” comment recently from Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.
“Jerry’s the best owner in the league. He just has to act like it,” Faulk told USA TODAY Sports. “He’s taken risks and changed the business model before in the league.”
Faulk mentioned how Jones’ NFL legacy took root in the 1990s by bucking the odds with Pepsi and Nike marketing deals, on top of his impact in opening up network TV deals.
“Don’t stop being a pioneer now,” Faulk added, alluding to Elliott’s case. “Don’t change now. He didn’t call the Vikings and 49ers and tell them, ‘Don’t reset the quarterback market.’ ”
Examining Elliott’s case
In a what-can-you-do-now business, Elliott’s case is bolstered by three key factors:
❚ Two NFL rushing titles in his three seasons.
❚ Heavy investments by the Cowboys to build one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
❚ A quarterback, Prescott, whose next contract will certainly exceed whatever Elliott gets … but is hardly elite.
Maybe the stalemate gets resolved in the coming days, with the clock ticking toward the start of the regular season and Dallas – no matter how impressive rookie Tony Pollard (Tony who?) has looked during the vanilla summer exhibitions – sorely needing the player who drives its offense if it will have a legitimate shot of turning last season’s NFC East crown into a Super Bowl run. Sometimes these deals can come together in 24 hours when there’s deadline pressure.
Or maybe this one lingers, like the Emmitt Smith talks did a generation ago when it took something drastic (a 0-2 start for a defending Super Bowl champ) to move the needle.
Right now, though, it’s a big game of chicken played against the backdrop of sorry market conditions for elite running backs. While the Cowboys connect the dots to other key players they seek to lock up to long-term deals, Elliott’s case is undoubtedly more complicated by the position he plays.
Where is the money?
How tough is it for a star running back to get paid?
Consider that the big extension that made Rams star Todd Gurley the NFL’s highest-paid running back – 4 years, $57.5 million with $45 million in guarantees – ranks just 64th in the NFL for average salary ($14.375 million), according to Spotrac.com.
Just three running backs – Gurley, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson – rank among the top 100 for average pay. It’s no wonder that Elliott reportedly is looking to top the running back pay scale.
Meanwhile, another prominent holdout running back, Melvin Gordon, has run into a brick wall of his own while trying to land a new deal with the Chargers. And Gordon, toiling for a team that spins around elite quarterback Philip Rivers, has significantly less leverage than Elliott.
“Our market as running backs is so low,” Cardinals star David Johnson told USA TODAY Sports.
Johnson got a 3-year, $39 million deal last year that guarantees $31.9 million and averages $13 million as the thirdhighest-paid back. Bell sat out the 2018 season with the Steelers, then landed a 4-year, $52.5 million free agent pact with the Jets that guaranteed $27 million and averages $13.125 million.
“Everybody else is below $10 million,” Johnson said. “It’s crazy that they value us so much – they want us to be running backs and receivers – but when it gets down to our contract it’s different.”
Johnson is undoubtedly pulling for Elliott and Gordon, whose current $2.67 million average salary ranks 27th in average pay for running backs.
By contrast, 18 quarterbacks are earning at least $20 million on average and 24 wide receivers are topping $10 million a year.
Position disadvantage?
Running backs have the shortest shelf life and the most wear-and-tear, which clearly affect the ability of the best backs to cash in with the type of big-money deals showered on others. Johnson aptly pointed to the average scale for all positions as a sobering reminder for running backs: Only longsnappers ($794,602) and fullbacks ($972,555) earn less on average than running backs ($1.28 million), a pattern than surely flows upward when the top backs negotiate for new deals.
Sure, it’s a quarterback’s world. The NFL is a passing league with no apparent end to the evolution as passing numbers keep escalating (although it’s interesting that when teams are pushing on playoff runs we still hear so much about needing a strong running game). Quarterbacks are the marquee men sold to the consumers and protected like endangered species by the rules.
Even so, something is out of whack when the value of average quarterbacks (see Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo) dwarfs more-proven players at other positions.
And there are always exceptions. You can’t blame Elliott for trying to strike when he’s hot. Running backs have always had a quicker impact in jumping to the NFL level because their skills – hit the hole and run – transfer more readily than that of other players with a steeper developmental curve.
Conversely, they are stung by the thinking of teams realizing their injury risk. The offseason buzz surrounding Gurley, just months after the contract splash, has involved whether he’ll be as dominant of a player after his stretch run last season was hampered by a knee injury.
If Elliott doesn’t cash in now, tomorrow is hardly promised. That the Cowboys are willing to negotiate despite the two years left on Elliott’s rookie pact (reportedly their offer would put him among the top three running backs) is an acknowledgment that he deserves a raise. But the issue for running backs has always been deeper than that in putting a price tag on it.