2020 is a referendum on Trump. Full stop.
Dem needs political skills and a slogan to beat him
For many Democrats, the past 25 years of politics were defined by two beautiful, generational candidacies run by two beautiful, generational candidates. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were charismatic, empathic and raised to play the cool game of TV politics.
They were also two of the only bright spots in that time frame. From 1994 on, the Republican Party conducted a slow, grinding march through congressional, local and statewide offices. Sure, the GOP wasn’t immune to setbacks, but the trend line for Democrats was clear: powerful majorities in urban and coastal cities, beat-downs elsewhere.
Yes, Donald Trump is flipping seats and states blue, but Democrats are not out of the woods. With Clinton (Bill, only) and Obama, they could forget for a moment about Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, Mike Dukakis and others who lacked the skills to win.
So, I’m going to give my Democratic friends some very tough love. This election, like every election, has a not-sosecret rulebook, and you’re ignoring it.
Like all presidential reelection campaigns, this is a referendum on Trump. Full stop. Democrats who believe that their policy papers will sway the electorate are living in a fool’s paradise. I’m not judging your policies. I don’t care one whit. I’m just telling you that they don’t matter, and never do. Trump’s policy fit on a trucker hat. Obama’s fit on a poster or in a three-word call of “Yes We Can.” Policy is a delusion.
The referendum on Trump will be based on his actions, his affect, his character, his corruption, and how he is reshaping this nation into a statist personality cult and away from our best values. It’s not like he doesn’t give Democrats something to work with.
To win, your presidential candidate needs to be the most effective counterforce to Trump, a remedy for the disease with which he has infected our body politic. That’s it. Heart, guts and being great on TV beat brains and policy over and over again. From grassroots door-knockers to earned media, social media and paid ads, everything must be about this referendum.
270 to win, baby
Next, if you’re not focused on the Electoral College and only the Electoral College, resign yourself to a decade of Trumps in the White House. Two big realities obtain: The first is that in 35 states, the election is already over. The Pacific Coast states are blue, and that’s not changing. Ditto New York, Massachusetts & Co. on the East Coast.
There are roughly 15 states in play. If your campaign isn’t building operations in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina and a few other swing states, you’re wasting time and resources.
As a corollary rule, remove “popular vote” from your lexicon. You know what a majority of the popular vote and $5.25 get you? A pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks. What you think about the Electoral College is beyond the valley of pointless. In 2020 the presidency will be decided by a majority of the electors in the college and nothing else: 270 to win, baby. It’s the only game in town.
Swing state voters aren’t ‘woke’
Triage it like this: Ignore the automatic blue wins. Don’t spend one dollar or one day there. Flood the zone on the swing states. Ignore the lost causes. Don’t spin yourself that you need to run a 50-state campaign; you can’t afford it, anyway. This isn’t rocket science, y’all. These have always been the rules.
Finally, it’s tempting to think that Americans are so very woke and that they all crave a massive government plan to hand out free stuff. From outside the Democratic primary bubble, here’s what I can tell you about most of the 15 swing states: They are decidedly unwoke on at least one major litmus test in the Democratic primary field, from private health insurance to abortion to guns to fossil fuels; Democrats will have to capture people outside the base to win them; and they have strong populist strains that are a present danger to the Democratic nominee.
These are just a few of the top-level rules in a game that’s complex but explicable. Understanding them, and getting out from under the old traditions of the way Democrats run and lose, is vital unless America is to suffer under Donald Trump for four more long years.
Rick Wilson is the author of “Everything Trump Touches Dies: A Republican Strategist Gets Real About the Worst President Ever.”
WANT TO COMMENT?
Have Your Say at letters@usatoday.com, @usatodayopinion on Twitter and facbook.com/usatodayopinion. Comments are edited for length and clarity. Content submitted to USA TODAY may appear in print, digital or other forms. For letters, include name, address and phone number. Letters may be mailed to 7950 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, VA, 22108.