Turkey’s deadly offensive in northern Syria enters sixth day
WASHINGTON – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s offensive in northern Syria after the U.S. removal of troops in the region entered its sixth day, resulting in deadly clashes, shifting geopolitical alliances and questions over whether U.S. military withdrawal would revive the Islamic State terrorist group, also called ISIS, in the region.
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Sunday that President Donald Trump ordered the full withdrawal of U.S. troops in northern Syria, a move clearing the way for President Bashar Assad’s government, backed by Russia, to reestablish control over the area.
After Trump’s decision to pull back U.S. troops from the border zone, Syrian Kurdish forces struck a deal with Assad’s government to help them fight off advancing Turkish forces. The United States served as the Kurds’ chief ally in the battle against the Islamic State in Syria over the past five years, but Kurdish forces said they no longer could count on American allies and now rely on the government they fought to break away from. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian forces moved into northern towns previously under control of U.S.-backed militants Monday.
About 100,000 people have been displaced by Turkey’s assault, according to the United Nations.
Melissa Dalton, deputy director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Russia has become a power broker in the region.
“They’re really trying to shape that,” she said of the deal between Assad’s regime and the Kurds. “They feel they’ve been able to secure a military victory in the rest of Syria, and what they really want is to be able to secure a political settlement for Syria overall.”
Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the deal reached between the Kurds and Syrian forces is hardly an alliance. The Kurds sought help from Syria to protect some of their cities from Turkish advance, but they are ultimately ceding power to Assad who looks to regain control of the region his troops abandoned.
“It’s more of an arrangement of convenience,” Barkey said. “Now the Kurdish hand has been weakened, and the Syrians can prevent some sort of governing entity from emerging in that territory.”
Dalton said the deal was critical for the Kurds’ survival, adding the key piece came in the form of air space protection to help combat Turkish airstrikes.
Dalton said another major concern is Turkey’s capability to manage Islamic State detainees held by Kurdish forces along the border. Throughout the course of the Syrian conflict, Ankara “turned a blind eye” to members of the militant group passing through its border to Syria, she said.
“They allowed this despite international pressure to take steps to shore up its border, so I do have concerns about their actual willingness to take on this mission of containing ISIS detainees,” she said.
About 100 people, including women and children affiliated with the Islamic State, escaped from a camp defended by Syrian Kurdish security forces, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told Reuters, adding that there was a state of “anarchy” inside.
“There’s real risk that as U.S. forces draw back out of harm’s way that these detainees are going to break out themselves or be released in those areas,” Dalton said. “What’s so tragic is that’s five years of counterterrorism work going down the drain.”
On Twitter Monday, Trump said he would soon issue an executive order authorizing the imposition of sanctions against Turkey but did not specify when they would take effect. Trump said he would increase steel tariffs imposed on Turkey to 50% and halt trade negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey.
Foreign ministers from the European Union (EU) met in Luxembourg on Monday and condemned Turkey’s assault on Syria in a statement.