Our view: Real potential for peace, but key questions linger

In recent years, the war in Afghanistan has played like distressing background noise in the lives of most Americans, accompanied by the relentless trickle of body bags coming home.

Now, for the first time after nearly two decades of conflict, the United States and its coalition partners might be on a pathway to ending the “forever war.” A “seven-day reduction in violence” has largely been holding, a test of wills for warring factions to see whether the time is ripe for peace. Daily insurgent attacks have dropped from 50-80 to about a half a dozen, according to rough estimates.

“We’re pretty close,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday in India. “We’ve got two days now under our belt without violence, or I guess a minimum of violence . ... So far so good.”

If the reduction continues through this week, the United States and the Taliban are to sign an agreement Saturday that could be a first step toward ending the war. The accord would trigger an immediate, initial reduction in U.S. forces from about 13,000 to 8,600; coalition forces would likely draw down as well. In exchange, the Taliban would renounce terror organizations operating on Afghan soil and begin talks with the Kabul government.

Trump and his chief negotiator, peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, deserve credit for bringing the process this far. It has been a long time coming.

The cruelly repressive Taliban regime, which offered al-Qaida a base of operations for planning the 9/11 attacks, was swiftly driven from power in 2001 by the U.S.-led coalition. But with support and sanctuary in neighboring Pakistan, and by harnessing historic Afghan antipathy toward foreign troops, Taliban resistance persisted.

America was soon distracted with the war in Iraq, which siphoned troops and resources. U.S. strategy too often produced mixed results, despite an Obama-era surge that brought troop levels to 100,000 in 2010.

As demonstrated by publication in The Washington Post of “The Afghanistan Papers” — hundreds of pages of inspector general assessments and interviews — U.S. leaders squandered opportunities and misled the public. Through three presidents, the war has left more than 2,300 U.S. troops dead and over 20,000 wounded. It has cost the United States more than $900 billion and Afghanistan the lives of over 100,000 people.

Trump pledged to disengage from foreign conflicts, and the Taliban appeared to seize on that as an opportunity. A lot can still go wrong, and much remains at stake. Among the key questions as the process proceeds:

❚ Will a truce hold? And who will negotiate on behalf of the Kabul government?

A contentious and close national election last fall left President Ashraf Ghani in power, but his chief rival, Abdullah Abdullah, is bitterly contesting the results.

Kabul will continue to rely on America and its allies for financial support and military training (and air support should hostilities return). The United States has a strong interest in maintaining at least a residual troop presence to continue the fight against al-Qaida and Islamic State terrorists.

❚ Will the Taliban be willing to reintegrate into Afghan society? Engage in power sharing? Or simply wait out the U.S. exit to retake control of the country?

While the Taliban have said the right things about populism and recognizing the rights of women, it remains to be seen whether these conservative Islamic fundamentalists are true to their word in any agreement with the Kabul government.

“The potential (for peace) is real,” says retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO who led the mission for four years. “But the three keys will be maintaining a ‘conditions-based’ approach, funding the Afghan security forces, and forcing the Taliban to negotiate in good faith with the Afghan government.”

❚ How will the president lead the peace process?

Will the commander in chief be vigilant and clear eyed in assessing the Taliban’s response? Or will Trump use the signed agreement, much as he did with the empty promises of the North Korean joint statement of 2018, as mere theater to boost personal ratings as an election approaches?

All wars end eventually, through the victory of one side or the exhaustion of the combatants. A glimmer of peace is finally coming to light from Afghanistan, though much rests on a tangled process ahead.