Is it up to Trump to ease guidance?

States have put own restrictions in place

John Fritze, Courtney Subramanian and Rebecca Morin

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump has said he wants to curtail the strict social distancing guidelines his administration put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic because of the potential impact on the U.S. economy.

But Trump is not the only executive to take action in the hope of “flattening the curve,” the term medical experts use to describe a slow and steady rise in the number of cases of COVID-19 rather than a sharp spike that could overwhelm the nation’s health care system.

As the president weighs loosening the federal guidance, he does so against a backdrop of governors who have implemented their own statewide – and independent – restrictions, from curfews to lockdowns to sweeping school and business closures.

“We’re going to be opening relatively soon,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall Tuesday. “I’d love to have it open by Easter . ... It’s such an important day for other reasons but I’ll make an important date for this too. I would love to have the country, opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”

But does Trump have the authority to revoke or alter that guidance? And what impact would the move have on work-from-home orders signed by state governors?

What is Trump’s guidance?

Trump announced guidelines March 16 aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus. Officials describe the effort as “15 days to bend the curve” of new cases. The guidelines called on Americans to avoid gatherings of 10 or more people and suggested that states with “community transmission” close their schools, bars, restaurants and other businesses.

The guidelines also recommended seniors stay home and avoid contact with other people, that Americans avoid discretionary travel shopping trips and social visits, and that customers use drive-thru, pickup and delivery options instead of eating out.

The federal guidelines are not mandatory, but both the president and public health officials have previously said that following them is critically important to slowing the spread of the virus. Many private companies, school districts and medical facilities have been honoring the guidelines.

Trump has signaled growing impatience with the federal guidelines and their potential impact on the U.S. economy. In a press conference Monday, the president shifted his message significantly and argued that the “cure” of the virus shouldn’t come at the cost of a massive economic slowdown. He did not say specifically when he will lift the guidelines but suggested it would be a matter of weeks and not months.

“Our country’s not built to shut down,” Trump said Tuesday during the Fox News town hall. “You can destroy a country this way by closing it down.”

The guidelines were set to expire early next week.

Because the guidelines are not mandatory, the president has wide latitude to adjust them as he sees fit. While Trump can set the guidelines however he wants, states and private industries are not required to honor them.

What about stay-at-home orders?

States with stay-at-home orders made by their governors could continue those orders, regardless of whether Trump lifts the guidelines.

As of Tuesday, at least 17 states have stay-at-home orders in place, and at least 10 others have some cities or counties that have issued their own orders. Each state has its own rules in place for how long the orders last.

If Trump changes his guidance, would that affect states?

The country’s public health law is a patchwork of responsibilities divided up between the federal and state governments, but typically states are in control of “police powers,” according to professor Glenn Cohen, faculty director for the Petrie-Flom Center for Health Law Policy, Biotechnology & Bioethics at Harvard Law School.

But if Trump decides to lift the federal guidance, states such as California or New York that have issued stay-athome orders “may decide to follow suit or not, but typically have significant discretion as to what to do,” he said.

While legally states remain largely independent of the federal government in regard to these measures, governors and state health officials may face political pressures in defying the federal government’s guidelines.

Could changes help the economy?

The president and his economic advisers have shown they are eager to roll back the “15 Day to Slow the Spread” initiative as economists warn of a dramatic economic contraction in the months ahead. Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley reported over the weekend the economy could shrink by 30.1% in the second quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than three years of gains.

But loosening restrictions too early and resuming public life could lead to tighter crackdown in the future, according to Jay Shambaugh, director of The Hamilton Project and a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.

“The whole point is to lock down until you control the virus,” Shambaugh said. “Anything you do to kind of erase the gains you’re trying to get by controlling the virus, it’s not just that it has health consequences, it requires further lockdown later on.”

Trump has suggested parts of the country where there hasn’t been a large outbreak could resume normal activities in the coming weeks, while New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has floated the idea that younger, healthier people could return to work while more at-risk populations remain at home.

Shambaugh argues the question is not when the U.S. should begin lifting restrictions in an effort to revive the economy. The question instead should be to health officials, asking what the conditions are in which the country could return to work – whether that’s a matter of increasing testing production, quarantining or contact tracing like South Korea implemented in its effort to combat the spread of the virus.

Should Trump ease the federal guidelines while states keep schools, restaurants and businesses closed, it may not revive the economy as much as it makes people take the restrictions less seriously, Shambaugh added.

“The economic pain is not something we can avoid simply by relaxing restrictions,” he said. “Millions of people have lost their jobs already. That has an impact on the economy regardless of if we try to open things up immediately.”

Health officials have stressed social distancing is a key part of stemming the spread of the virus to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed amid medical supply shortages.

Regardless of whether Trump reopens American business, the economic repercussions are already underway. Aside from the equity market wealth that has already been lost and the subsequent expected cutback in consumption over the next 12 months, the contractions in Europe, China and other places will also affect U.S. economy, according to Shambaugh.