The smart way forward on the coronavirus
Somehow, the idea has taken root that there’s a trade-off between dealing with the coronavirus and keeping the economy afloat.
As governors have implemented social distancing and business closure orders, some critics have said that these measures go too far. And as the White House’s initial 15-day guidelines expire Tuesday, President Donald Trump expressed a desire to ease up on the restrictions and even spoke of packed churches on Easter.
That won’t be happening. On Sunday evening, Trump acknowledged the reality that the way forward requires patience and more pain, announcing that the White House would be extending its social distancing guidelines through April 30.
Relaxing too soon would let the virus course its way through the system, producing enormous economic — as well as human — costs. Until the spread is brought under control, frightened people would stay home anyway. Supply chains would be interrupted. Governors who resisted social distancing initially would be forced to relent.
For this reason, it would be better for America to see the economy and coronavirus mitigation as one and the same thing, not an either/or proposition. And for this reason, Trump should cease making aspirational statements and focus on a national action plan, guided by science, that melds economic and public health interests in a way that instills public confidence.
Such a plan would look much like the road map that Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, and other leading public health experts released on Sunday:
❚ First, flatten the curve. At least for the next several weeks, social distancing should be the norm, to slow the spread of the virus and prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. During this period, the federal government should use all powers in its disposal — including the Defense Production Act — to secure, produce and distribute much needed equipment for hospitals, clinics and emergency medical services.
Will this have severe and disruptive economic consequences? Of course. That’s why Congress just approved a $2 trillion relief measure, 2 1/2 times the size of the stimulus passed during the 2008 financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is also taking extraordinary steps to keep credit flowing.
❚ Implement widespread real-time testing. Delays in developing and distributing test kits left the nation largely flying blind as the disease spread.
Widespread quick-result testing is a key to a more robust economy. Once the number of cases declines, and infected people can be quickly identified and isolated, governors will have more latitude to loosen restrictions on dining out, going to stores and other normal activities. During this period, people would still have to practice self-distancing and avoid mass gatherings.
❚ Push ahead on therapies and a vaccine. The final element of an action plan is the only part that seems to be on track: an all-out effort to develop treatments and a vaccine. Some therapies have promise but need to be tested in clinical trials. Given how far the coronavirus has spread, most experts don’t expect it to go away without a vaccine. Widespread administration of such a vaccine is, unfortunately, not likely until sometime next year at best.
No one knows precisely how long it will take before the number of U.S. cases peaks. Gottlieb said Sunday that he thinks April will be “a hard month,” but that “we’ll be coming out of this” in May. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said, “The virus itself determines that timetable” for easing up.
The coronavirus might show some seasonality, like colds and the flu. If this is the case, the combination of social distancing and hot, humid weather could drive the numbers of infected people way down this summer. This shouldn’t be seen as cause for declaring victory but as a chance to prepare for a possible second wave in the fall.
By pushing on these three fronts — an immediate focus on keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, an intermediate push for widespread testing and a longer-term campaign to defeat this pathogen — Americans will not only be healthier. They will also sense that things are heading in the right direction, which would be the most potent economic stimulus of all.