GOP’s vote by mail dilemma
President Trump’s strategy is dividing his party.
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s sustained criticism of mail-in ballots is dividing his party ahead of the Republican National Convention this week amid new signs it may be discouraging his own voters as much as it is the Democrats.
A USA TODAY review of mail ballot requests in several battlegrounds shows Democrats appear to be gaining an advantage in states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida as Trump hammers away with allegations of fraud .
The growing chasm between the president’s rhetoric on vote-by-mail and what on-the-ground Republicans see as a central component of their turnout strategy could make for a tricky dynamic at this week’s GOP convention, where the party wants to build excitement to increase turnout, not depress it.
“The narrative that he’s created has backfired,” asserted Michael Steele, a former Republican National Committee chairman. “Any Republican who’s running a campaign knows how much we rely on absentee ballots – vote by mail – for turnout.”
In Pennsylvania – considered a must-win state for Trump – nearly 900,000 Democrats have requested a mail ballot for the Nov. 3 election so far, more than twice the number of Republicans who have done so. In North Carolina, also in play, some 177,000 Democrats requested ballots compared with just more than 50,000 Republicans.
Democrats were outpacing Republicans by more than 600,000 requests in Florida’s primary this week, a method once dominated by Republicans.
Still, Trump has continued to launch a rhetorical assault on the issue in the days ahead of the party’s convention. Democrats used their meeting this past week to encourage voters to “make a plan” to request a ballot by mail.
“This is going to be the greatest scam in history,” Trump told Fox News last week. “This will be the most fraudulent election in history.”
Broader strategy
Trump’s attacks on mail ballots have been leveled in tandem with a broader, coordinated Republican strategy that has taken shape as both parties prepare for a legal firefight over voting that experts predict will only intensify.
The Republican National Committee earmarked $20 million last year for its election legal effort. Party officials published
a website echoing the president’s accusation that Democrats are trying to “eliminate nearly every safeguard.” .
In a tweet, RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel accused Democrats of trying to “rig this election” and pointed followers to the website launched in May.
Republicans expect to train “thousands” of lawyers for the election, a Republican with knowledge of the plans told USA TODAY. Democrats also usually “lawyer up” and a Democratic source speaking on condition of anonymity said the party is building out a “voter protection” program that will be active in at least 20 states.
The president and the GOP have sought to draw a distinction between mail-in voting, which they say they support, and “universal mail voting,” where states automatically send a ballot to each voter. That latter system, they argue, can lead to fraud because voter rolls in some states are not up to date.
Nine states have said they will use that “universal” system and, of those, only Nevada and Colorado are considered potentially competitive this year.
“All Americans deserve an election system that is secure and President Trump is highlighting that Democrats’ plan for universal mail-in voting would lead to fraud,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Matthews said. “While Democrats continue to call for a radical overhaul of our nation’s voting system, President Trump will continue to work to ensure the security and integrity of our elections.”
GOP mail ballots
Trump’s message is falling on the ears of Republicans as well as Democrats, and there growing signs that it may be having a bigger impact within the GOP. Steelesaid Trump’s rhetoric
not only had the potential to scare off older voters who tend to skew Republican but also any GOP voter who is concerned about turning out to the polls amid a public health emergency.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that 51% of Democrats would prefer to vote by mail compared with 20% of Republicans. By contrast, GOP voters said they are more willing to vote in person.
“If I were a Republican strategist, I would be pretty concerned ... about a disproportionate decline in Republican turnout because Republicans are convinced that mail-in votes are so rife with fraud that there is no point in doing it,” said Ramesh Ponnuru with the right-leaning think-tank American Enterprise Institute.
The impact is not yet clear. Several key presidential states, such as Michigan, don’t keep track of party affiliation for ballot requests. Voters do not register by party in Wisconsin. In Arizona, about 1.4 million Republicans have requested a mail ballot or have been placed on the state’s permanent mail vote list compared with 1.3 million Democrats.
Still, the president’s messaging has met with a mixed response among some conservative thinkers.
“Trump has managed to create some polarization among some rightleaning leadership, among thought leaders and in some state and local politicians,” said Kevin Kosar with the right-leaning R Street Institute. “But, among the latter group (of) individuals, reality is reality. An election is coming, and they need a Plan B, an alternative to voting in-person. Expanding access to absentee ballots is the obvious Plan B.”