‘Intensification’ could increase Laura’s danger

Hurricane Laura, spinning in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico with 75mph winds, could undergo “rapid intensification” before it hits land late Wednesday or early Thursday along the Gulf Coast, potentially as a potent Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.

“The conditions ahead of Laura do favor rapid intensification,” University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy said.

The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.

“Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment,” he said.

“Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of mid-level moisture.”

Seawater in the Gulf is plenty warm, forecasters said, in the neighborhood of 86-88 degrees, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections. Laura “will have a long stretch of warm waters with high heat content Tuesday night until landfall Wednesday night or Thursday morning, and rapid intensification during that time is a good possibility,” Masters said.

National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Ed Rappaport said, “The waters are warm enough everywhere there to support a major hurricane, Category 3 or even higher.”

Hurricanes can intensify significantly when winds in the upper atmosphere are light under an area of high pressure, which allows the hurricane to grow stronger, Weather.com said.

“This type of upper-level wind pattern is exactly what is forecast to develop over Laura as it tracks across the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday,” according to Weather.com.