In-depth look at COVID-19 and top football programs
Public health experts weigh in on the risks as cases spike on college campuses.
The Big Ten has reversed its decision to postpone football for the fall at the same time cases of COVID-19 have spiked in communities where the conference’s 14 schools are located. ² # ; " " ² " & ² Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health. ªt¨ ² ¨¨ { y a master of public health candidate at Emory's Rollins School of Public Health, who conducted the data analysis for USA TODAY.
Nine of the 14 counties with Big Ten schools showed higher infection rates during the past week, including Indiana and Michigan State, both up 101%, and Penn State 92%. The Hoosiers’ Monroe County, Indiana, topped all Big Ten counties with 63.2 cases per 100,000 — an infection rate in the Power Five that’s second only to Virginia Tech’s Montgomery County.
Colleen Kraft, an infectious disease expert at Emory University, said it’s “really hard’’ to see a strategy for the Big Ten to move forward with an eight-game season starting Oct. 24 because of the high case rate on college campuses.
“I think there’s a movement that’s probably happened in the last couple of weeks toward kind of living with COVID, but it’s going to be concerning given that other regional (athletic) conferences have not been very successful in keeping their football going,’’ she said. n against North Carolina on Saturday had been canceled due to a depleted roster. Charlotte didn't have enough offensive linemen available to play because of contact tracing after three positive cases on the team.
“It doesn’t apply to what they do in the evening or what they do on their own time,’’ Kraft said. “And those are the times that are actually the risky times. So while we’ve mitigated the risk from sports itself, we can’t completely mitigate it from coming in from outside of sports.
“I think not having behavior change on campus potentially is going to cause a lot of trouble, even if we can be safe during sports.’’
But Jay Wolfson, distinguished service professor of public health at the University of South Florida, said advances in testing and public sentiment justify the Big Ten’s decision to play. Football is being played at South Florida.
“Some of us in public health or medicine are saying it’s dangerous, everybody should be cordoned off, put a bubble around everything,” Wolfson said. “That’s fanciful and it’s ivory tower (expletive). The reality is people in this country are ready to get back.
“What they’re going to have to realize, though, is it’s going to have to be carefully controlled and paced, and if and when there are blips, you stop and you have to be able to stop.’’
Fans will not be allowed to attend Big Ten games. Wolfson said that will help mitigate community spread of COVID-19. He also pointed to the success the NBA and NHL have had in containing the transmission of COVID-19.
“The risks are still there,’’ Wolfson said. “But the facts have changed. We’ve got some new tools. We’ve learned some new lessons. We’ve looked at what other places have done, what other industries have done and maybe this is a time to say, ‘OK, there’s this compelling psychosocial need to move forward and demonstrate that we’re not being beaten by this thing and sports in many respects are the epitome of our society saying, ‘We can do this.’ ’’