Likely No. 1 Lafrenière bound for stardom
Had Alexis Lafrenière prioritized coasting his way to the NHL draft, the presumed No. 1 overall pick never would have completed the 2020 World Junior Championships.
The 18-year-old Canadian crumbled to the ice with a left knee injury during a Dec. 28 game against Russia, sending shock waves through the hockey world. The safe choice would have been to sit out the rest of the tournament and protect his very valuable future.
But five days later, Lafrenière was back in uniform for the quarterfinals. And from the moment he hit the ice, he sent a message about his toughness and determination.
“The way he came back – he did not play like a guy who was doubting himself, or play like a guy who was afraid of getting hurt again,” said Team Canada assistant coach André Tourigny.
“His first shift in that game was unbelievable. He started from the bench and he went on the forecheck and finished a big hit, then came back and hit another guy – and not just small hits. He went hard into his battle, so for me, that showed the competitiveness. He did not just want to play and just dip his toe in. He went (all) out.”
Lafrenière notched a goal and an assist in that game and went on to lead the Canadian team to a gold medal finish, winning tournament MVP honors with four goals and six assists in five games.
“The big thing about Alexis is that he’s clutch,” Tourigny said. “In big moments, he was the best player.”
With that, the pride of Saint-Eustache, Quebec, cemented his status as the best teenage prospect in the world. It was never in doubt, really, not with Lafrenière dominating the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League for the last three years.
Over the course of 173 games with Rimouski Océanic, the dynamic forward accumulated 297 points (114 goals and 183 assists), an average of 1.72 per game and nearly 100 per season. He led the QMJHL with 112 points (35 goals and 77 assists) in 52 games in 2019-20, which works out to an average of 2.15 per game, to earn league MVP honors for the second consecutive season.
No draft-eligible player has been as productive, but it’s not just about the striking statistics. Lafrenière is considered the most well-rounded prospect in recent years, with a diverse skill set that appears to be NHL-ready.
“He’s got a high-level game in every single facet you look for these days,” said Scott Wheeler, an NHL draft and prospects reporter for The Athletic. “There are no holes.”
A long list of strengths
At 6-foot-1, 193 pounds, Lafrenière is built to handle the jump to the pros.
“He’s really strong on the puck, really strong in battles and not afraid to get involved,” said Tourigny. “He has all the skill in the world. His hands are great, his shot is great, so I was expecting that. He’s (going to be) the first overall pick and there’s a lot of hype around him, so I knew he would be a good offensive player. But to see how physically strong he was and how much energy he was playing with, I was not expecting that. I did not know he had that in his repertoire.”
That willingness to use his strength and “challenge defenders to make physical contact,” as one North American scout put it, forms a dangerous combination with his high-end skill.
“There’s that elusive puck protection skill that a lot of smaller players have, but then he’s also physical, powerful – almost like a power-forward-type player who can sort of lean on you and drop his shoulder and cut to the net with strength,” Wheeler said. “I think that blend of power and finesse is what makes him so special.”
Lafrenière is an excellent passer to go along with his accurate shot and strong hands, but many also point to his ability to deceive with the puck.
“He keeps his hand position the same, whether he’s stick-handling, shooting or passing,” said Cam Robinson, the director of film scouting for Elite Prospects. “He’s giving no indication to the defenders, or to the goaltender, about what he’s about to do. And then before you know it, it’s either across the ice and on someone else’s stick, or it’s up and under the bar.”
Will Scouch, founder of the prospects analytics site Scouching.ca, has spent hours studying film of Lafrenière to chart various metrics. He keeps coming back to one standout conclusion.
“Something that’s hard to capture in data is just how smart he is,” Scouch said. “He has this elite ability to just put pucks where other players are not and manages to navigate through pressure and put himself in a position to produce points – better than anyone in this draft. ... He knows how to do it on the fly and how to adapt to pressure.”
Defensively, Lafrenière will have to learn what it takes to succeed at the NHL level.
If there is a knock on Lafrenière, some have questioned whether he’s a strong enough skater to be a star.
Dylan Galloway, the head scout of Eastern Canada for Future Considerations, said, “His north-south skating speed and mechanics need some improvement” but admitted that was nitpicking.
No-brainer pick?
So, is Lafrenière a no-brainer for the Rangers with the No. 1 overall pick on Tuesday?
Most say yes, and signs are pointing to him being the Blueshirts’ choice.
“At this time, (Lafrenière) is quite clearly the best player,” said Robinson, who is also the managing editor for Dobber Prospects. “You’re looking at a guy that you can plug-and-play in your top six – arguably on your top line.”
Robinson calls Lafrenière “Jonathan Huberdeau on steroids,” referring to the Panthers’ star who has averaged nearly 80 points in the past three seasons.
And while Wheeler says that Lafrenière isn’t on the “Connor McDavid level or Sidney Crosby level” as far as No. 1 picks go, he notes, “There’s a pretty pronounced gap, for me at least, between Alexis and the field.”
“I don’t think he’s going to be a superstar,” he added. “But I really do think he’s going to be one of the top left wingers in the NHL eventually.”
Lafrenière’s parents, Hugo and Nathalie, have worked to keep him grounded as the spotlight has increased.
That’s something that Tourigny observed during Lafrenière’s stints with Team Canada, saying, “He comes across as the furthest thing from a superstar.”
Even though he’s never been to New York, those who know him best feel the prized prospect is prepared for this moment.
He’s had the eyes of Canada and the hockey community homed in on him for years already. Now it’s time to try playing under the bright lights on Broadway.