56% of voters expect post-election violence
Poll also finds 47% don’t think election will be fair
WASHINGTON – Bill Fry, 61, is a supporter of President Donald Trump in rural Ohio who doesn’t share much in common politically with Matt Edelman, 29, a Joe Biden backer who lives in Brooklyn, New York.
Except this: They both worry about the legitimacy of the upcoming presidential election and fear an outcome that appears tainted could heighten the nation’s already frayed psyche and exacerbate violence in the streets.
They’re not alone. A new poll shows a large swath of Americans harbor deep reservations about the election results weeks before Election Day and are concerned about what actions people might resort to as a consequence.
The YouGov poll of 1,999 registered voters found that nearly half – 47% – disagree with the idea that the election “is likely to be fair and honest.” And that slightly more than half – 51% – won’t “generally agree on who is the legitimately elected president of the United States.” The online poll was conducted Oct.1-2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.56 percentage points.
In addition, a YouGov poll of 1,505 voters found that 56% said they expect to see “an increase in violence as a result of the election.” That question had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
For Fry and many other Trump supporters, the concern over the election’s legitimacy is tied to largely unproven claims Trump has raised about potential fraud involving millions of mail-in ballots that already have begun to pour in to election office across the nation.
“We would be foolish to not at least accept that it’s a real thing that happens sometimes, and I just worry that it’s going to happen in a greater numbers this year,” said Fry, a Marine veteran who owns a dental management company in Blanchester, Ohio. “And a lot of my friends think the same things.”
For Edelman and other Biden supporters, the worry is that Trump’s unrelenting criticism of the mail-in ballots and his refusal to agree to a peaceful transition of power if he loses is proof that he’ll stop at little to reverse what Edelman believes will be an electoral defeat given polls showing Biden with a significant lead nationally.
“Trump is already casting doubt on the legitimacy of vote by mail, which tells me that he may try to dispute the result legally or by decree or who knows by what means,” said Edelman, an assistant to the learning specialist at a local school who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders in the primary.
Both Fry and Edelman are members of Braver Angels, an organization that promotes civility and healing between “reds and blues” and regularly holds workshops where participants can air opposing views. The group, formerly known as Better Angels, began in 2017 when half the country was having trouble getting over Trump’s victory and the other half resented them for not being able to accept it gracefully.
Braver Angels, which commissioned the YouGov poll, has issued a “Letter from America,” a national campaign asking citizens, civic groups and religious organizations to pledge that they will disavow violence from either side and respect those who voted differently.
Alex Theodoridis, an associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, has studied the country’s growing partisan divide. The reasonable chance that the election comes down to a few states and that legal challenges could mean a protracted court battle would give voters on both sides more ammunition to doubt the integrity of the election, he said.
“A close, contested election in our hyper-polarized political climate could very well produce isolated incidents of partisan violence,” he said. “My research, and work by others, shows that most partisans are willing to metaphorically dehumanize those from the other party and that this dehumanization predicts greater tolerance for partisan violence.”
And each side is apt to blame the other for inciting disorder.
“If Trump wins, I fear chaotic, destructive hate will continue,” said Chrissy Koach, 49, a Braver Angels member and Trump supporter from Arlington, Virginia, who works part time for a international development and relief nonprofit organization.
Noor Ain, 23, an architecture student who emigrated from Pakistan as a child, is worried about what will happen in the aftermath of the election. A Biden supporter who initially backed Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren in the Democratic presidential primary, Ain said Trump’s victory in 2016 “validated” hate in the U.S. and that his followers could act up even if he wins reelection.
“The country’s already pretty divided, and it’s only become more and more divided in the past four years,” she said. “Whatever the outcome is, I feel like there will be a rise in violence.”
Those sentiments might help explain the conclusion of a new survey that finds a majority of U.S. adults believe the country is “on the verge” of a second civil war. Of those, four of 10 said they “strongly agree” with that sentiment expressed most sharply by those identifying themselves as very conservative or very liberal.
The online poll Sept. 23 has a margin of error of 4.42 percentage points in either direction.
“This is the single most frightening poll result I’ve ever been associated with,” said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, one of the three firms, along with the Sports and Leisure Research Group and ROKK Solutions, that sponsored the survey.
“So, what’s the consequence of that? How bad does this get?” said Thau, who has been holding focus groups with battleground state voters as part of the Swing Voter Project. “You’ve got people on the far left with guns, people on the far right with guns. And an unwillingness of political elites to condemn this. ... People are girding themselves for something awful to happen.”
Braver Angels and other groups appealing for calm and civility hope their efforts can act as a tourniquet on the country’s political wounds.
“I think our democracy has certainly never been weaker in my lifetime,” Edelman said.
Thau said he has never seen anything like it.
“It just seems like the country’s lost its mind,” he said.
“A close, contested election in our hyper-polarized political climate could very well produce isolated incidents of partisan violence.” Alex Theodoridis the University of Massachusetts-Amherst