Turnout could reach highest in a century
So far, numbers have ‘blown out expectations’
Across America, early voting is smashing records, including in swing states. More than 40 million have already voted.
WASHINGTON – In Harris County, Texas, a record 128,000 people voted in person the first day of early voting last week. Then 115,000 the second day. And 105,000 the next.
It’s hardly slowed down since. Through the first eight days of early voting in Texas, 801,000 people voted in Harris County, eclipsing 93% of the county’s 2016 early voting total, with 10 more days of early voting left.
Houston’s extraordinary turnout, which includes in-person and mailvoting, has helped make Texas – which historically votes at among the lowest rates nationally – ground zero for the this year’s early voting explosion in the presidential election. A battleground in the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden, Texas has reached nearly 60% of its overall turnout from 2016 with 5.3 million people voting so far.
“The numbers that we’ve seen, they’ve blown out our expectations,” said Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins. “We certainly expect that this will be the highest turnout election of all-time here.”
Months ago, some questioned whether the U.S. could pull off an election during a raging pandemic.
Now, early voting is smashing records across the country: North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan, other swing states in the race for president, have either surpassed or are approaching 40% of their overall 2016 turnout. More than 42 million people had voted early, either in-person or by mail, as of Wednesday afternoon, more than six times the 6 million who had voted early around this time in 2016.
“It’s unprecedented,” said Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, who manages the United States Elections Project.
US passes 30% of 2016 turnout
With less than two weeks before Election Day, voter turnout nationally has reached 30% of the overall 138.8 million people who voted four years ago. For the first time in election history, more people are expected to vote early than on Election Day.
McDonald, who tracks early voting numbers by the minute, said it’s possible 85 million people could vote before Election Day and perhaps 150 million will vote in total. Ten times more mail ballots have been returned than at this point in 2016 and twice as many people have voted in-person.
Several states changed laws from four years ago to either offer or expand early voting, and more people are taking advantage of it, particularly voting by mail, amid the coronavirus pandemic. States have also gotten better at reporting their daily vote tallies.
Democrats continue to fuel the mailvoting surge, accounting for 10 million, or 52%, of the 19.1 million mail ballots returned by voters in the 19 states that report voter registration data. Trump has slammed mail-voting throughout the campaign, likely turning off many of his supporters to the method.
Republican voters have returned 5 million mail ballots, or 25.2% of all returned ballots, and voters with no party affiliation have returned 4.1 million mail ballots, accounting for 21%.
“Voters are heeding the call of election officials and the campaigns, particularly the Biden campaign, to vote early and get those mail ballots in early,” McDonald said. “There was some doubt whether or not we’d be able to run an election in the midst of a pandemic. It’s going to happen. Now we just need to see how it all shakes out.”
Turnout of eligible voters could reach highest since 1908
If voters on Election Day – who are expected to disproportionately favor Trump – turn out as expected, McDonald believes the U.S. could have the highest percentage of eligible voters actually vote since 1908. (Figures are according to the Vital Statistics of American Politics. )
That year, Republican William Howard Taft defeated Democrat William Jennings Bryan with 65.7% of the voting-eligible population participating. This was before the the 19th Amendment, so the pool of eligible voters did not include women, and laws in the South also restricted many Black Americans’ ability to vote. Turnout was much higher, greater than 80% of eligible voters in some years, throughout much of the 19th century.
Turnout among those eligible to vote began to decline in 1972 and was in the low 50%-range throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The lowest mark in recent history was 1996 with 51.7% of the votereligible population participating. The rate started to rise in 2004 and has been at about 60% since. In 2016, 60.1% of the voter-eligible population voted.
After the 2018 midterm election, which was the highest midterm turnout since 1914, McDonald predicted the 2020 presidential election could hit the 1908 turnout rate. It would require more than 150 million people voting.
‘I’ll show you’ attitude, Houston clerk says of voters
Nowhere is high turnout on display more than rapidly growing Texas, which for the first time in a generation is getting attention from both the Republican and Democratic standard-bearers as Biden looks to put the Lone Star State in play. Democrats last won Texas in 1976.
Texas is breaking records despite not being among the states that expanded vote-by-mail during amid the pandemic.
In Houston, Hollins pointed to tripling the number of early voting sites to 122 and for the first time offering drivethru voting, in which around 10% of inperson early voters have taken part. On Oct. 29, Harris County will also offer 24/7 early voting in certain locations to accommodate medical workers and others who work graveyard shifts.
Hollins, a Democrat, said he believes efforts aimed at “misinformation” and “voter suppression” from Trump and Republican leaders in the state have motivated voters. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott this month ordered that no county – including Harris County which has a population of 4.7 million – have no more than one mail-ballot drop off location, a move that was upheld in court.
“I think the voters’ reaction to that is to say, ‘I’ll show you.’ ” Hollins said. “I think some of these efforts at getting people to stay home have backfired. And people are really, really motivated to get out. I think that’s regardless of their party, regardless of who they are planning to vote for. Everyone is yearning to have their voices heard right now.”
Trump, Republicans relying on big Election Day turnout
Behind Texas, states with the most early votes as of Wednesday are California, 4.5 million; Florida, 3.7 million; North Carolina, 2.1 million; New Jersey, 2 million; and Michigan, 1.8 million.
States with the highest share of voters in relation to their overall 2016 turnout are: Texas, 59.3%; Vermont, 53.4%; New Jersey, 50%; New Mexico, 47.8%; Montana, 47.1%; Georgia, 45.9%; North Carolina, 45.2%; Tennessee, 42.6; Virginia, 39.3%; and Colorado, 37.5%.
Republicans have matched turnout among Democrats with in-person early voting in some states and surpassed Democrats in others. In Florida, 44.5% of the state’s 721,000 in-person early voters have been Republican, compared with 39% of Democrats.
Republicans have an edge with inperson voting in states such as New Mexico and Nevada. But it hasn’t overcome Democrats’ advantage with mail voting.
“If Republicans aren’t eating into the edge that Democrats have, it’s really putting all of the eggs into the Election Day basket,” McDonald said. “The Trump campaign is going to have to hope that all of their voters show up on Election Day, and that’s risky.”
Voting problems have been minor, experts say
David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, said voter enthusiasm across the political spectrum was high heading into the election. He said people are accepting the “new normal” and making plans for how they will vote.