The presidential transition from hell

We’re in for a parade of horrors from Trump

Our long national nightmare, the Trump presidency, is finally nearing an end. But first, get ready for another national nightmare now that Joe Biden is the president-elect: The transition.

America is unique among established democracies in many ways, among them the extraordinary length of time from an election to the actual transfer of power. Parliamentary systems that have a change in administration make the change overnight. We take 2 1/2 months. That period leaves the losing president in charge, with all his powers, while the president-elect prepares to take office.

Transitions are not always smooth, even if they occur within a party. Outgoing people are often glum and resentful, and they don’t always feel an incentive to help their successors succeed in undoing what they have done. The best transition in modern times was the one from Republican George W. Bush to Democrat Barack Obama. To their credit, Bush and his chief of staff, Josh Bolten, made sure that the Bush people cooperated fully with the Obama transition teams.

Trump? He has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transition and has complained about his own, referring repeatedly to the “witch hunt” involving his national security adviser Michael Flynn, among others. His antagonism toward Biden and his petulance are not the only problems:

Damage that can’t be undone

h First, he can take actions that will make life for his successor more difficult and tumultuous. Expect a slew of executive orders and executive actions. We have already seen this in the weeks before the election. One is designed to blow up the career civil service; it authorizes the president to put protected employees into a new category that allows them to be fired at will with no appeals. Another opens up the full Tongass National Forest in Alaska.

Executive orders and actions taken by one president can be reversed by the next. But it can be a long, cumbersome process, and sometimes, for instance in the case of logging and mining, damage cannot be undone. In 2017, Trump and his Republican Congress used the Congressional Review Act to wipe out Obama-era regulations just by passing laws negating them. If there is a Republican Senate, Biden will not have that option.

●Second, expect a slew of pardons — for Trump himself, for his family and staff, for his Cabinet and other officials facing possible charges of corruption and malfeasance. This alone will empower them to act in a reckless fashion, with no possibility of legal backlash, through Jan. 19. This group could include people across the government who are carrying out Trump’s harsh immigration policies and or who violate laws intended to preserve records. The desire to cover their tracks by deep-sixing incriminating or embarrassing documents will be strong.

● Third, under his likely illegal exech utive order on the civil service, Trump can fire Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx and many career scientists at other agencies that he sees as being disloyal because they followed facts and science. Trump could also fire intelligence professionals who were loyal first to the United States and not him personally.

Fomenting more division

Of course, they can be reinstated after Jan. 20, but the disruption in the meantime will be substantial, some will have to take other jobs to pay the bills, and the process of reinstatement may be cumbersome.

h Fourth is what Trump can do in the foreign policy arena — such as making it harder to go back to the Iran nuclear deal, escalating tariff wars with China or making mischief in the Middle East.

h Fifth is the likelihood that Trump will spend much of his transition time on the road, doing the rallies that soothe his troubled soul when he is surrounded by enthusiastic acolytes. But of course he will use those rallies to reiterate his list of grievances and to foment more division in the country.

Then there are the problems that can arise in the day-to-day contact between Trump officials in agencies and Biden’s transition team. Some might cooperate fully; others will move into full massive resistance. And due to Trump’s large number of vacancies, there may be literally no one home when the Biden team looks for the political appointee in charge.

With this litany of horrors, is there any good news? The answer is yes. The Presidential Transition Act gives a lot of authority to career officials, so resistance from political appointees can be bypassed in most cases. And the author of the act, former Sen. Ted Kaufman of Delaware, is now heading the transition for Biden. He knows the process better than anybody.

At least some Trump officials, for patriotic or self-interested reasons, or both, will work to make this process go well. Republicans in Congress might step in if there is a strong public backlash against Trump’s behavior. In addition, groups inside and outside Congress are trying to prevent destruction of records and make sure career employees do not find themselves culpable by following illegal orders. They are also setting up a whistleblower hotline to create more protection.

All that can help. But unless Trump shows a dramatic change in personality, we need to brace ourselves. Change is coming, but along the way, fasten seat belts for severe turbulence.

Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and co-author of “One Nation After Trump,” will be working with the National Task Force on Election Crises to help protect the transition.